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Foro general de Meteorología => Huracanes, tifones, ciclones, tormentas tropicales => Australia => Mensaje iniciado por: hardstyle en Sábado 05 Enero 2013 15:25:24 pm
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Inicio seguimiento del que podría ser el primer ciclón tropical que afectará a Australia de manera directa. Modelos globales siguen insistiendo en cada actualización, en la más que posible posibilidad de una intensificación severa de la Onda Tropical que en estos momento se encuentra en pleno del Mar de Timor, y que en las ultimas horas esta dando signos de organización, generación de importantes núcleos tempestuosos, y generando unos más que interesantes topes fríos.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/aus_wv_latest_zps905047b0.jpg)
8SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-99S-1261E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/tc_home2_zpsd23ab225.jpg)
Este sistema viene bien fuerte :-X
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B.O.M comienza a seguir a la Baja Tropical.
At 8am WST Saturday a weak tropical low [1002hPa] was located in the Timor Sea
near 10S 125.8E just north of the Western Region. It is expected to slowly
develop
and move in a west southwest direction and into the Western Region over coming
days. This system may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday or Tuesday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday Low
Monday Moderate
Tuesday High
::)
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/aus_vis_latest_zps20aca2c6.jpg)
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(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S 125.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. A RECENT 051537Z OSCAT PASS
SUPPORTS THE ELONGATION OF THE LLCC OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND INDICATES WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS SLIGHTLY
DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM AND LOW VWS (05 TO 10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS)
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE LOW VWS, FAVORABLE SSTS, AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
98SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-111S-1255E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/201301060014mtsat-2vis98SINVEST25kts1004mb108S1258E100pc_zpsa950e1ed.jpg)
;)
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Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:52 pm WST on Sunday 6 January 2013
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 9 January 2013.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST Sunday a tropical low [1001hPa] was located in the Timor Sea
near 10.2S 125.8E just to the east of the Western Region. The low is expected
to develop and move in a generally
west direction into the Western Region on Monday. It is likely to reach cyclone
intensity on either Tuesday or Wednesday well north of the Australian mainland.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday Moderate
Tuesday High
Wednesday High
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/rb-animated_zps2b7fa1de.gif)
Mantiene intensidad, y las previsiones no san tan favorables en la ultima actualización, como para que llegue a más de los 65 KT.
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Buenos días, B.O.M comienza a seguir al sistema de manera directa, y con unas previsiones para nada conservadoras.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/null-12.jpg)
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Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica por parte de la marina (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21 , y B.O.M pronostica un pico máximo previsto en su primer boletín de 95 KT para dentro de tan solo :-X tres días...
Issued at 07/1100Z)
TC formation is expected late Tuesday or
early Wednesday, then a steady intensification later in the week as the TC moves
further southwest.
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0000: 11.7S 119.5E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 991
+24: 08/1200: 12.0S 118.1E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 988
+36: 09/0000: 12.3S 117.4E: 130 [240]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 09/1200: 13.1S 116.9E: 150 [275]: 075 [140]: 964
+60: 10/0000: 14.0S 116.0E: 170 [310]: 085 [155]: 955
+72: 10/1200: 15.3S 115.3E: 185 [345]: 095 [175]: 946
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/201301070832mtsat-2vis98SINVEST25kts1003mb116S1208E100pc_zps486e8353.jpg)
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Aún sin salir el primer boletín de la marina >:(, cuando la misma ya registra vientos de Tormenta Tropical. A ver que opinan los australianos...
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/201301071932mtsat-2ir08SINVEST35kts996mb118S1199E100pc_zps4b05d709.jpg)
20130107 1732 -11.8 -120.2 T2.0/2.0 98S 98S
;)
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Unanimidad entre el Europeo y el GFS, se deslizará paralelo a la costa dirección sur, y cabe la posibilidad de que acabe penetrando por la zona de Pilbara.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/Wind3285032and32mslp_Australia_144_zps47a5e1f2.gif)
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/stormcast_init-2013010712z_fcst-2013011303z_s850_wa___zps5482b14b.png)
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Como comenta Hard, primer bicho de entidad para la zona australiana. El pico de intensidad previsto es de 125 Kts. La Navy aún no ha actualizado, por lo que las imágenes del microondas aún no están disponibles, para ver sus "entrañas". Buen comienzo de temporada, entre esto y los enormes incendios de Tasmania. :-X
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Ciclón Categoría II
08SNARELLE.45kts-989mb-127S-1175E
Dvorak analysis DT=3.5. MET=3.0
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/avn-animated_zpse766ee95.gif)
Previsión de Categoría 5 para el Servicio Meteorológico de Australia, y 4 para los americanos en su escala.
Parece ser que pueda virar y evitar penetrar en las costas australianas, según la ultima actualización de los modelos globales.
;)
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En un plis-plas, alcanza los 55 Kts. y los topes son sencillamente... :cold: :cold: :cold:
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Todo parece indicar que que Narelle está inmersa en todo un proceso de rápida intensificación (ERC), y destacar el gigantesco,compacto y robusto CDO que sigue expandiéndose por todos los cuadrantes de su LLCC... por lo que a no muy tardar, debería de mostrar su Eye.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
3:08 AM CST January 9 2012
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At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (984 hPa) was located near 12.5S 117.0E or 830 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.
Storm Force Winds
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50 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
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150 NM from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
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12 HRS: 13.3S 116.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.3S 116.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.9S 115.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.4S 113.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Additional Information
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Position based on 1406 UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A central dense overcast has formed with a convective burst over the Low level circulation center. Peripheral banding in southwest sector, good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded center pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good ASCAT pass.
The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/tc_home2_zpsf678fe36.jpg)
:-X
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NARELLE alcanza la Cat.1 S.S. y sigue su periplo paralelo a la costa NW australiana.
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Categoría 3 para Australia.
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/null-13.jpg)
;)
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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
3:04 PM WST January 9 2012
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At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (972 hPa) located at 13.2S 116.4E or 840 km north of Karratha and 1000 km north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.
Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall possible.
Tropical Cyclone Watch
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A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.
Forecast and Intensity
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12 HRS: 14.1S 116.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.5S 115.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.3S 114.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.4S 113.2E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Sigue sin fortalecerse, pero aún no consigue cerrar su centro. Parece como si estuviera padeciendo los efectos de una moderada cizalladura de componente este-noreste, que desplaza ligeramente toda la convección al oeste de su LLCC.
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Pues según las últimas imágenes del SAT, ha pegado un "petardazo" de no te menees. Topes muy fríos y fuerte convección tapando su centro. Sube a 08SNARELLE.75kts-967mb-140S-1157E. :-X
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Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south
southwest towards Northwest Cape and gradually intensify.
08SNARELLE.80kts-963mb-162S-1149E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/7.jpg)
Impresionante Outflow, por no decir su formidable organización y estructura que presenta Narelle en estos momentos, a ver si se decide a mostrar su Eye de una vez por todas, libre de cualquier tipo de nubosidad, que ya esta tardando demasiado.
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Sigue intensificando vientos y bajada en picado de la presión.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 114.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 947 hectoPascals
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/avn-animated.gif)
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Impresionante Outflow, por no decir su formidable organización y estructura que presenta Narelle en estos momentos, a ver si se decide a mostrar su Eye de una vez por todas, libre de cualquier tipo de nubosidad, que ya esta tardando demasiado.
Dicho y hecho. 08SNARELLE.110kts-941mb-177S-1131E ;)
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08SNARELLE.115kts-937mb-183S-1126E
(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/aus_vis_201301110833.jpg)
:-X
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Categoría 5 para el Servicio Meteorológico de Australia.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.5 degrees South 111.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals
Su Eye comienza a fluctuar ligeramente, puede que este comenzando a sustituirlo en las próximas horas.
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(http://i1238.photobucket.com/albums/ff495/Hardstyle1980/Tropical/2013SevereHardstyle/aus_vis_latest.jpg)
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08SNARELLE.75kts-967mb-232S-1100E
http://www.youtube.com/v/Hteq40--oSc?version=3&
Poco a poco se va desgastando rumbo sur, sin afectación directa a las costas de Australia, pero dejándose sentir con un buen temporal marítimo en toda la costa noroccidental australiana.
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Tropical Cyclone 08S (Narelle) Warning #26 Final Warning
Issued at 14/2100Z