INVEST 92-L (M.D.R.-Antillas Menores)

Se han registrado vientos del OSO en Dominica, cerca del centro del INVEST 92-L

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDPD.html

Tal vez quiera decir esto que existe algun tipo de circulacion, dado que el viento en el resto de las Islas Antillas tiene a ser del Este.

Modelo SHIPS:

Le da 58 kt a 5 días vista... Roll Eyes

48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100620  1200   100621  1200   100622  1200   100623  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  74.6W   17.9N  79.7W   18.2N  84.1W   18.0N  87.8W
BAMD    17.4N  68.1W   18.6N  71.0W   20.3N  74.0W   22.1N  76.7W
BAMM    17.5N  71.2W   18.3N  74.7W   19.4N  77.9W   20.6N  80.6W
LBAR    17.6N  72.6W   19.3N  77.0W   22.0N  80.5W   23.4N  83.0W
SHIP        28KTS          32KTS          42KTS          58KTS
DSHP        28KTS          31KTS          41KTS          58KTS

Posdata: Este post corresponde a un mp que me ha mandado mi amigo pepeavilenho  

Nuevo parte actualizado , pierde algo de fuerza




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

El patrón de SHIPS se repite, salida a salida. Siempre a largo plazo, refuerza al disturbio

Y si, puede tener validez, ya que algún modelo quiere desarrollar algo por el Caribe

Pero a dia de hoy, este invest no es nada, y menos que será. Mañana incluso puede no haber ni seguimiento oficial 

El patrón de SHIPS se repite, salida a salida. Siempre a largo plazo, refuerza al disturbio

Y si, puede tener validez, ya que algún modelo quiere desarrollar algo por el Caribe

Pero a dia de hoy, este invest no es nada, y menos que será. Mañana incluso puede no haber ni seguimiento oficial 

En efecto, en estos momentos no hay nada de nada, ni circulación ni convección ni nada, casi que podemos ir recogiendo.

Saludos 

Bueno, pues vuelve a ser un sistema de bajas presiones(1012mb)

Y vuelve a tener convección.



No le doy por finiquitado, de momento.

Aun sigue vivo 




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Precipitaciones importantes en Puerto Rico, tras internarse en el Caribe SW.

- ATCF se mantiene como Onda abierta.

AL, 92, 2010061906,   , BEST,   0, 169N,  654W,  25, 1012, WV

Sigue aun vivo 





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

Mucho me temo que las unicas opciones de este Invest serán cuando llegue al Gom de cara al Miercoles.

De momento poca chicha para La Hispaniola, Cuba, y toda esa zona del Caribe.

Espero que no sea otro ''pufo'' como lo fué el 90-L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren

Pues hay un floater indicando INVEST 92-L sobre el area que se encuentra actualmente en seguimiento amarillo (20%)

De momento no hay activado nada, pero...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


 

Pues hay un floater indicando INVEST 92-L sobre el area que se encuentra actualmente en seguimiento amarillo (20%)

De momento no hay activado nada, pero...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


 

Sí pero ¿es la 92L o es un sistema distinto? No puede ser que la 92L ayer estuviera al Sur de Haití y hoy esté más al Este.
Tampoco aparece el 92L ni en la web del NRL ni en la del CIMSS.
Estos del NHC quieren reventar la Tropical Cup