Manchas solares/Sunspots: Seguimiento del Ciclo Solar (Links en primer post)

región de Nueva 1234 haciendo el día de hoy de grado, pero está sujeto a la regla de 24 horas. La actividad es extremadamente baja. los niveles de flujo por debajo de 90 en esta etapa del ciclo pueden considerarse poco habituales.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

región de Nueva 1234 haciendo el día de hoy de grado, pero está sujeto a la regla de 24 horas. La actividad es extremadamente baja. los niveles de flujo por debajo de 90 en esta etapa del ciclo pueden considerarse poco habituales.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Posiblemente estemos ahora en la Mitad justa del ciclo, poco activo sin duda.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50,  Da spotless, tambien el 10 sin manchas

www.spaceweather.com, da hoy 16

Parece cerca un posible "0"   

Pues hoy esta claro que no hay manchas

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/13jun11/hmi4096_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=i3dbmaajr7ngnl7431m8cgh1i4

Pues hoy esta claro que no hay manchas

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/13jun11/hmi4096_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=i3dbmaajr7ngnl7431m8cgh1i4

No lo creo. El estado atual del Sol es este:

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions.

Region 11234 developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11235 was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:

[S1049] reemerged with a single spot near the southwest limb.
[S1060] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 11. Location at midnight: N18E09
[S1062] rotated into view at the northeast limb on June 13. Further C class flaring is likely. Location at midnight: N15E81. Flare: C1.2 at 00:55 UTC.



[S1063] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: N33E37
[S1064] emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: S16E38
[S1065] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: N17E13
[S1066] emerged in the northwest quadrant at a high latitude on June 13. Polarities are reversed. Cycle 25 region? Location at midnight: N44W10

Dibujito de hoy del SIDC, que es el que cuenta:



WN=48

Las manchitas, eso si, dejan mucho que desear.

parece que se corresponde con esta imagen en tiempo real...



...para entender un poco la composición de las manchas o grupos de manchas...

http://sidc.oma.be/educational/classification.php

...por cierto ya ha sido numerada la región en N15E89, hoy con dos llamaradas de clase  C ( C1.8/C2.2), como 11236.

http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html

"Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.

The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.

The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces."

En Watts up

NASA: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solar-minima.html

Estos ultimos estudios que apuntan a un Minimo de Maunder muy proximo, no han sido elaborados por unos tiraos de la vida o unos mindundis, sino por el National Solar Observatory (NSO) y por el Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), y afirman lo que afirman basandose sobre todo en:

- jet stream desaparecido
- manchas flojeando
- actividad polar disminuyendo

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=33826

Mobile "jet streams" in the Sun migrate from the poles toward the equator as the solar cycle progresses. At left (solar minimum) the red jet streams are located near the poles. At right (solar maximum) they have migrated close to the equator. The jet streams are associated with the locations where sunspots emerge during the solar cycle, and are thought to play an important role in generating the Sun's magnetic field.


Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams typically form at about 50 degrees latitude (as in 1999 on this plot) and are associated with the following solar cycle 11 years later. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25.

Interesante. Y la NASA sin aparecer... Por cierto, Livingstone y Penn son del NSO y aquí su institución los respalda.

Dejo una noticia que me parece interesante en el que se habla del actual ciclo y el ciclo 25.

Se predice una gran bajada en la actividad solar

"Ya esperábamos ver el inicio del flujo zona para el Ciclo 25”, explica Hill, “pero no tenemos signos del mismo”. Esto indica que el inicio del Ciclo 25 puede retrasarse a 2021 o 2022, o puede que no llegue a tener lugar”

Seguir leyendo...

http://www.cienciakanija.com/2011/06/15/se-predice-una-gran-bajada-en-la-actividad-solar/

Es una noticia del NSO.