Seguimiento de actividad eléctrica

Valid: Tue 17 Jan 2017 06:00 to Wed 18 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jan 2017 19:24
Forecaster: DAFIS
A level 1 was issued for parts of East Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation, large amounts of small hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The long-wave trough that stretches from NW Russia towards Central Mediterranean results in very low geopotentials and continuous convective phenomena over almost the whole Mediterranean basin. At the surface, a high pressure system is moving from the Atlantic over the mainland of Europe during Tuesday and strengthens to about 1040 hPa over Germany. On the contrary, "Victor", a deep cyclone over Italy (named by the National Observatory of Athens), creates a favorable environment for DMC events.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates and moist PBL can build up to 800 J/kg of MLCAPE according to NWP models. The main risk will be found at the coasts of Italy, Greece and Turkey as strong convergence zones develop. Moreover, sufficient DLS values for the development of multicells are forecast for SE Greece and West Turkey, where DLS of 15-22 m/s will overlap with 400-800 J/kg of CAPE. Excessive precipitation and large amounts of hail will be the main threats. Finally, isolated severe convective wind gusts cannot be ruled out where multicells will develop, inside level 1 area, as well as waterspouts (non-convective wind gusts will be of much more concern).

Previsión para hoy y los que se han registrado hasta el momento.




Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS

Rayos 19 de enero.


Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS

Rayos 21 de enero.


Fuente: @AEMET_ SINOBAS

Aún tenemos actividad por Baleares, Norte de  África y Sicilia.

Rayos 22 de enero.


Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS

Rayos 23 de enero.


Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS

Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 26 Jan 2017 06:00 to Fri 27 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Jan 2017 22:45
Forecaster: GATZEN
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Amplified Atlantic trough approaches west of Europe on Thursday. Its leading occlusion runs into dry low-level air advected offshore from the British Isles and Iberian Peninsula. In its wake, intense jet streak is directed towards Morocco. Stretching of the maritime air mass allows for some CAPE over the Sea and also into Portugal late in the period with equilibrium level temperatures around -15°C. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Weak CAPE and limited low-level convergence are forecast, and organized deep moist convection is not likely.

Downstream of the digging west-European trough, ridging sets in across the central Mediterranean. Troughs that allowed for storms on Wednesday will move into drier air masses. One currently situated over the Balearic Islands will lift over France. It can still be associated with storms over the French coasts in the morning, although low-level moisture is decreasing along its path. Severe storms are not expected given weak CAPE and vertical wind shear. Over France, dry low-level air will quickly lessen thunder chances. A trough over the central Mediterranean is forecast to move into the Aegean region. Here, very dry low-level air mass will remain, and CAPE will disappear over most regions. Thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday morning over the Ionian Sea but will likely weaken until the afternoon as equilibrium levels become warmer in the wake of the leaving trough. With weak CAPE and shear, main threat of these storms are a few waterspouts at the start of the period.

Rayos 26 de enero.


Fuente: @AEMET_SINOBAS