Ayer la clavaron los de Estofex, una vez más. Y para hoy ponen una zona 3:
...W / NW Romania and SW Ukraine...
GFS and HIRLAM forecast some 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE for the region of interest, combined with very strong vertical shear (around 20 m/s of 0-3 km bulk shear and 30 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear) and enhanced 150 - 200 m²/s² SRH3. Given the strong capping in the morning hours, no widespread storm initiation is to be expected and very intense isolated storms are likely to form in the late afternoon. The formation of hail and strong downdraughts is supported by some 20 degrees of vertical Theta-E difference. Due to the strong shear and helicity, they will likely become long-lived supercells with a threat of very large (> 5 cm in diameter) hail and downbursts exceeding F1 intensity. Even though the cloud base is expected to be in order of 1.5 to 2 km AGL and LL shear is in order of less than 10 m/s, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Later in the evening, storms may tend to merge into a few large MCSs containing supercells and may pose a threat of excessive precipitation. During the night, storms should weaken as instability decreases but a threat of severe weather will likely persist. The region where widespread severe weather should be most likely is covered by a LVL3.
Especially during the night, also E Romania and the central parts of Ukraine will be affected but the lower probability of very large hail and damaging wind gusts leads to a lower threat level.
De todos modos, creo que se han equivocado al poner Even though the cloud base is expected to be in order of 1.5 to 2 km AGL and LL shear is in order of less than 10 m/s, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out., que debería ser more, como así se ve en los mapas convectivos.
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