Fiji comenta las posibilidades de desarrollo de algo tropical, tomando como referencia el invest
93P, para ellos TD 14F:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1002HPA] LOCATED NEAR 17S 178E AT 010600
UTC SLOWLY MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. POSITION POOR BASED ON LATEST
MTSAT IR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND
29C.
14F IS WEAK AT THIS STAGE WITH LLCC EXPOSED, DEEP CONVECTION IS
DETACHED TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
14F IS
EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH WHILE AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES
TO THE NORTH. A STRONG SOUTHEAST SURGE IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE AMOUNT OF SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEEN TO
DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS [WITH 14F BEING ONE OF THESE LOWS]. THESE LOWS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A GOOD NORTHWEST
STEERING FLOW. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THESE LOWS AS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEW ZEALAND
EXTENDS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF PRESSURE INTO THE TROPICS. AT THIS
STAGE,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY OF THESE LOWS TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS.
POTENTIAL FOR 14F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Pues eso. El mozón aprieta en la zona, y cualquier sistema que se desarrolle queda embedido por el, y por tanto, subyugado para desarrollarse tropicalmente. Pero como hay propensión a crearse bajas presiones, puede que algun sistema si tenga oportunidad de desarrollarse antes de coger las corrientes que impulsan a estos sistemas hacia el jet. Para eso hay que contar con esas altas presiones sobre Nueva Zelanda que comentaba hace días, y que pueden ayudar a evitar la fuga de esas mini bajas, y por tanto, tener la posibilidad de pasar a ser algo más