De los dos Invest que tenemos en el Pacífico Occidental y mar de China, el que se aproxima a Vietnam, está mejorando por momentos, a pesar de la influencia del Monzon.
ABPW10 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/242100Z-250600ZJUL2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.1N 122.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEASTERN TAIWAN. A PARTIAL
240120Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES BROAD LOW LEVEL TURNING OVER NORTHERN
TAIWAN (10 TO 15 KNOTS). HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN AND AN
OBSERVATION AT 24.5N 122.8E (NORTHERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A 2 MB
PRESSURE DROP OVER 24 HOURS) INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY
EXIST SLIGHTLY EAST OF TAIWAN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
POSSIBLE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A PORTION OF THE
NARROW TROUGH HAS FORMED INTO A WEAK, YET SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241815Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW AND WEAK BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
STILL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS HAS
STARTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS DOWN TO 15-25
KNOTS. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DA NANG AND HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS (5-30 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AND STARTING TO
DRIFT WESTWARD, BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE DECREASED.
FINALLY, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LLCC AND DECREASING VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.