Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Bajan el 97L al 10% y ponen bajo seguimiento otra onda tropical a medio camino entre África y Sudamérica:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Bajan el 97L al 10% y ponen bajo seguimiento otra onda tropical a medio camino entre África y Sudamérica:

Citar

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Compañero, el Gfs en la última salida desarrolla esa onda tropical en las proximidades de las Islas Antillas.

Por lo demas se mantine sin cambios significativos.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210081824
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  308W,  15, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  90,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100718,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  325W,  15, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  80,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100800,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  342W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  80,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100806,   , BEST,   0,  81N,  359W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  70,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100812,   , BEST,   0,  83N,  375W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2012100818,   , BEST,   0,  85N,  391W,  25, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,

Cita de: Rafer en Lunes 08 Octubre 2012 09:23:54 am

Bajan el 97L al 10% y ponen bajo seguimiento otra onda tropical a medio camino entre África y Sudamérica:

Citar

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Compañero, el Gfs en la última salida desarrolla esa onda tropical en las proximidades de las Islas Antillas.

Por lo demas se mantine sin cambios significativos.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210081824
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  308W,  15, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  90,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100718,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  325W,  15, 1010, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  80,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100800,   , BEST,   0,  80N,  342W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  80,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100806,   , BEST,   0,  81N,  359W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  70,   0,   0,
AL, 98, 2012100812,   , BEST,   0,  83N,  375W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2012100818,   , BEST,   0,  85N,  391W,  25, 1008, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,

El incremento de la cizalladura en las próximas horas acabaran completamente con esa Onda Tropical, se esperan valores superiores a los 30- 40 KT, por lo que no cabe más que acabe totalmente aniquilada... pero estaremos pendientes 

La cizalladura está en valores bastante altos en buena parte del atlántico y eso que apenas comienza octubre, no creo que la temporada esté acabada pero le va a costar trabajo formarse nuevos organismos en el atlántico.

Saludos 

Mantienen al 97L en el 10% y suben al 98L al 20%:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND.  UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

La 98L será PATTY camino de Bahamas 

La 98L será PATTY camino de Bahamas 

Paciencia, que todavía los modelos no ven esa solución a plazos razonables.

Saludos 

Cita de: Torre en Martes 09 Octubre 2012 14:39:36 pm

La 98L será PATTY camino de Bahamas 

Paciencia, que todavía los modelos no ven esa solución a plazos razonables.

Saludos 

¿Apostamos algo? 

 

Mira a ver que se puede apostar, por mi parte estoy listo. 

Saludos 

Lamentable que la marina (JTWC) no se haya percatado del bicho que se acaba de comer la zona índica de Blangladesh 



 

Con Steward de guardia, 97L y 98L suben al 50%...

 

Hay un invest en Pacífico Este.

Se trata del invest 97 E.

Ahora mismo le dan un 40 % de posibilidades de desarrollo.

Ahora abro el topic