Bueno, a medida que las tormentas van perdiendo fuerza y consistencia es hora de empezar a analizar lo que podría suceder la proxima tarde-noche en las planicies centrales, con KANSAS en el punto de mira.
El Tour de Alberto se tendrá que desplazar hacia el medio-este del estado de Kansas donde la jornada a prori va a ser más prolífica que la de ayer y quien sabe si podrían cazar su primer tornado...
Durante la mañana hay posibilidad de alguna tormenta aislada y ya durante la tarde noche será cuando se anime la fiesta con potentes supercélulas que vendrán acompañadas de granizo de gran tamaño, vientos fuertes y potencialmente de tornados.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO...
--- EARLY ---
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD...IN PLUME FROM
NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS. THIS WILL
REPRESENT NEWD SHIFT OF STG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PLUME AND ACCOMPANYING
CONVECTIVE REGIME NOW COVERING MUCH OF ERN CO AND EXTENDING INTO WRN
OK PANHANDLE. SVR THREAT BY START OF PERIOD TIME WILL BE MRGL AT
BEST...GIVEN WEAK NEAR-SFC THETAE EXPECTED OVER SWRN NEB AND WRN KS.
ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NEWD OVER NEB AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY.
--- AFTERNOON/EVENING ---
RELATIVELY COMPACT CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD TODAY ACROSS MAINLY KS. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL
ALSO IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING
TIMING/DURATION OF FAVORABLE SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN KS...OTHERWISE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EVEN GREATER
SVR PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME APPARENT.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. MOST
PROBABLE LOCATION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL
KS...IN ARC FROM N THROUGH ESE OF NEARBY SFC LOW. MODIFIED
RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-UPPER 60S F SFC
TEMPS...CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE WITH EVEN BRIEF SLOT OF PRE-DRYLINE SFC
INSOLATION...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT
AND LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF
SFC LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
EWD-SHIFTING WARM SECTOR SLOT WILL WIDEN AND BECOME MORE BUOYANT
WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS KS DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ARC
OF SVR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP....WHETHER SEPARATELY FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY FARTHER W OR AS SEWD-BUILDING EXTENSION. ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY MAY MERGE INTO SVR WIND-PRODUCING AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS
ARC. HOWEVER...FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PRESENCE
OF SIGNIFICANT ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN OVER ERN KS INTO THAT PART OF SWRN MO ALONG
AND SW OF WARM FRONT. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE MAY REACH 2500 J/KG IN
E-CENTRAL/SERN KS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES NEAR 50 KT.
EXTENSION OF THREAT INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN OK IS CONDITIONAL DUE TO
SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHENED CAPPING LIKELY OVER OK...ALONG WITH
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SVR PROBABILITIES THEREFORE DIMINISH
WITH SWD EXTENT OVER OK. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD
EXTENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MO TO MS RIVER AREA.
...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL
ZONE...FROM ERN SC AT LEAST AS FAR WNWWD AS NERN AL...BECOMING
WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FARTHER NW WHERE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING WILL BE WEAK. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F...STG HEATING...AND
FRONTAL LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE MLCINH AMIDST 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BENEATH
GENERALLY 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. PRIMARY MODE SHOULD
BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH SPORADIC STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH
MARKEDLY AFTER 00Z...DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF BOTH SFC DIABATIC
COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.