¿Esto?
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 15NM EYE AND A 171422Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
AN EYE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND AN
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATING MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. BY TAU 36, TY
FANAPI SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
48, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET.
39 Respuestas
14634 Vistas