Tifón WUTIP Categoría 2 (20-W. PAOLO - Hainan- Vietnam)

Aspecto muy bueno de WUTIP en el SAT, aunque las actualizaciones de la web de la Navy, siguen atascadas. Yo diría que tiene más de 70 kts. fijo.
TPPN11 PGTW 281818

A. TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP)

B. 28/1732Z

C. 16.8N

D. 113.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A 1.3 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 4.0.
MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1227Z  16.9N  113.6E  SSMS

20WWUTIP.70kts-967mb-168N-1131E
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

Ya decía yo que viendo el Visible de WUTIP, éste tenía que tener más de 70 kts. Según el JTWC, está en proceso de rápida intensificación" alcanzando en estos momentos los 90 Kts. con vista de que sea todo un MAJOR en menos de 6 horas.
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
Menudo "bicho" se van a comer en Vietnam.

TYPHOON (TY) 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 20W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55
KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A 10-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PADDLE ISLAND ALSO INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH A PRONOUNCED
TROCHOIDAL TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH HAD WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), IS
FILLING AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AS EXPECTED.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE STR IS RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND TY 20W
IS NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
105 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
   B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GOOD POLEWARD VENTING THROUGH TAU 12 AND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, POLEWARD
VENTING WILL WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL STR BUILDS INTO EASTERN CHINA.
TY 20W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 12 THEN, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 30, WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
TAU 48. BASED ON THE IMPROVED, TIGHT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC
MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

WUTIP se mueve con 85kt cerca del sur de Hainan

Su eyewall está ligermente erosionado, veremos si culpa solo de cizalladura (que empezará a subir hasta que toque tierra) o un eventual ERC

WUTIP poco a poco va perdiendo fuerza, actualmente posee 80 kts. Imagen actual, camino de las costas vietnamitas.



Yo, personalmente, pienso que ha sido afectado por un ERC, pero es una opinión.

Buen seguimiento

Sorpresas que da la vida. Pues sí, estaba sufriendo el ciclo de reemplazo y lo ha terminado a tiempo, antes de entrar a tierra, porque menudo aspecto muestra en las imágenes del SAT.

20W.WUTIP.80kts-963mb-169N-1100E




Pega un ligero repunte antes de tocar tierra, ya que de madrugada había bajado a 75kt

Que hijo de putifar...

TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 015   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 107.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Que se casca la Cat. 2 otra vez antes de tocar tierra 

Mirad su aspecto antes de tocar tierra.



Actualmente ya ha impactado contra las costas vietnamitas. Esperemos que no cause muchos daños ni desgracias.

WUTIP corre que se las pela

Su centro se encuentra ya en Laos. A ver mañana que dicen las noticias de los destrozos ocasionados

Parece que WUTIP no deja muertos en Vietnam por el momento, aunque si 75 desaparecidos en la provincia de Hainan