Por fin llega el parte del JTWC
Rebaja la intensidad de vientos a
105 ktREMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF OMAN (GOO).
THE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD ALTHOUGH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS INCREASED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ELONGATION. THE CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE, ENHANCING THE CURRENT POSITION FIX
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03A IS NOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, A PRELUDE TO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A SKIRTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF OMAN AND WITH INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF
GOO EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR CALLS FOR A SHARP NORTHWEST
DEFLECTION DURING THE FIRST 12-36 HOURS BEFORE THE RECURVATURE - A
POSSIBLE INDICATION THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN EARLY RECURVE. RECENT STORM MOTION AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION BOLSTER AN EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
No sé, dicen que se basan algo en la ADT, pero ésta le da actualmente 69 kt.
¿que opinais? avergonzado
Mirando esa imagen y las del CIMSS, buena paliza que le está dando PHET a OMAN ya parte del CDO esta sobre tierra así que otra vez veremos imágenes impactantes de los efectos de la lluvia y el viento en esas desérticas tierras.
saludos 
si...a ver si sale el MODIS en la aplicación de 250 metros de una vez...
saludos
101 Respuestas
41044 Vistas