Depresión Tropical 06E (Pacífico E)

mmm....a ver si no va a salir Estelle de aqui....

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3.  NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Sin apoyo modelístico, el NHC se lanza a la piscina



 

En la discursión sobre el sistema, dicen que la fuerte cizalladura del NNE , está literalmente " friendo " al sistema, que permanece desorganizado y con movimientos erráticos, aunque tiene tendencia de moverse al W y que para cuando esta baje, aproximadamente dentro de tres dias , ya estará navegando  sobre aguas de unos 26,5 º C. Así, pocas perspectivas de desarrollo veremos. : (
Saludos.
P.D.: Una última imagen de la 06E en IR. Veremos esta tarde-noche como está en el Visible.

Pues sí Sudoku, bastante está haciendo....



ADT:- CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
     2.4 / 997.6mb/ 34.0kt

Como salga Estelle de este ''engendro'', hay que hacerle un monumento....

Sí, a duras penas se mantiene en una intensidad media de entre 30 a 34 Kt. Y el Visible parece un "Cacaolac" De todas formas, los predictores comentan en el nuevo parte que el sistema se mueve algo más lento de lo que se preveía en un principio y también preveen que pequeñas explosiones convectivas se den alrededor del centro del sistema, una vez que la cizalladura baje de los 25-30 Kt actuales, a los menos de 15 Kt previstos al final del periodo de previsión (36 a 48 h) Los Modelos GFDL y HWRF no le dan más de 40 a 45 Kt. Muy justito lo va a tener
Saludos.

Cuidado al parte.....

ADT: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt

Para mi no es TT, pero a lo mejor para Stewart sí....



 

Sin cambios.

UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED
T2.5/35 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE UW-CIMSS AND CIRA-NESDIS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT
DURING THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE DATA WOULD GIVE AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
SHEARED ABOUT 85 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.

INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY
36 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR SLOWLY ABATES...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP CLOSER TO AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION

En resumen....

STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/2100Z 15.9N 108.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 115.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Stewart......

De verdad que no entiendo nada, ya es baja remanente...

SINCE THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER
SATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.
THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Yo creo que este sistema no ha dicho aún su última palabra...



 

1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED ABOUT
385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.
REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

Ni el NHC ni JTWC hacen seguimiento de la SIX-E.......... Se acabó!!!