Tormenta Tropical JOYCE (10-L. SW Cabo Verde - M.D.R)

Cito un dato interesante del Nhc :

THIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL
STORM OF A SEASON.  IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22
AUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.

Adjunto la trayectoria prevista.

Viendo la trayectoria que postea Sagrajeño, ahora comprendo lo que ponía el modelo GFS, a medio-largo plazo, cómo emergía un "bicho" tropical al WSW de las Azores. Ojo a los "recurves" de última hora, no vaya a seguir la misma ruta que GORDON.
Saludos.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240848
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
DISCONTINUED.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT
OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT.  JOYCE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH.  AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.9N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 17.8N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 22.8N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 31.5N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 36.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Joyce se convierte en una baja remanente. Bye bye Joyce. 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241433
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

...JOYCE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOYCE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2
WEST.  THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H.  SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT LOW COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG