Lanzada nuevamente la alerta por formación ciclónica por parte de la marina para el sistema 93P.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
160 NM RADIUS OF 16.4S 140.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 162030Z INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ABOUT TO
MOVE BACK OVER LAND NORTH OF DELTA DOWNS. SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AREA SHOW SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS 30 KNOTS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE REGION HAS HIGH (30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, SO ANY PROLONGED
PERIOD OVER THE GULF COULD LEAD TO
RAPID DEVELOPMENT.