Si es que estoy yo solo en el foro



tenemos ya el ATCF sobre este sistema, al que el NHC otorga:



1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SOME
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

No tiene mucho apoyo modelístico, CMC intuye, y el unico que si desarrolla bruscamente es el HWRF.

Saludos

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

Aspecto actual del sistema en el visible.

A ver si sobrevive estas 36 horas a la cizalladura, por que posteriormente las condiciones se tornarán más favorables.

*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      EP972010  09/26/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) LAND       25    24    23    22    22    22    25    27    33   37    43    48    54
SHEAR (KT)        31    34    32    24    15    15     7    11    10     9    12    11    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -3    -5    -4    -2    -5    -5    -5    -5    -3    -3    -2    -3
SHEAR DIR         82    84    93    95   102   114   127    98    82    87    66    80    72
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.4  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   149   150   150   149   148   146   144   146   146   146   146   146   145
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     7     8     8     8     7     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     64    65    64    65    64    65    66    65    64    61    60    59    56
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     8     7     7     7     6     7     7     8     8     9    10    12
850 MB ENV VOR    72    66    67    66    57    44    42    58    68    89    73    71    69
200 MB DIV        13    29    25    31    35    32    28    32    17    34    30    19    32
LAND (KM)        581   554   528   481   436   347   321   349   422   490   561   626   715
STM SPEED (KT)     2     4     4     5     5     4     1     3     3     3     3     4     4
HEAT CONTENT       5     4     5     6     8     7     6     7     7     7     8     7     6

Lo que si me llama la atención es que se mantendrá bastante estacionario, mirad:

LAT (DEG N)     14.8  15.2  15.5  16.0  16.5  17.5  17.9  17.6  16.9  16.4  16.1  16.0  15.8
LONG(DEG W)    107.7 107.8 107.9 107.9 107.8 107.6 107.6 107.7 108.0 108.4 109.0 109.7 110.6

Pues eso

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD.