North-eastern SpainFavorably veering profiles are expected to evolve during the day with south-easterly surface winds and westerly winds at mid levels. Although the winds are rather weak, around 15 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear are forecast together with about 100 m²/s² 0-3 km SRH. Latest soundings indicate a well developed EML that will overlap with increasing low-level moisture during the day. GFS indicates CAPE around 500 J/kg. Main uncertainty will be the rather large capping inversion. However, increasing large-scale ascend ahead of the approaching trough as well as upslope flow seems to support initiation over the mountains in the afernoon hours. Supercells may develop capable of producing large or very large hail. Severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation are not ruled out.
North-eastern SpainA vort-max will travel across Spain during the day, providing quite strong QG forcing across northern Spain. A cold front has entered the Iberian Peninsula during the night from the west and leads to convection across north-eastern Spain in the morning hours. However, low-level winds will turn to east across north-eastern Spain in response to a thermal low during the day. Moisture advection is therefore expected across eastern Spain today, and diurnal heating and steep lapse rates will result in 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE in the afternoon hours. The unstable air mass will be capped in the southern regions, but the strong QG forcing over northern Spain is expected to limit CIN significantly. Initiation becomes quite likely in the noon hours and and storms are forecast to continue during the afternoon. Although the best vertical shear will be placed to the south of the expected convection, around 20 m/s 0-6 km und 10 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear will be adequate for organized convection even further north. Veering profiles will support supercells. Very large hail is the main threat, but supercells may also produce a tornado or severe wind gusts. In the evening hours, stoms are forecast to decay quickly as cold air advection sets in from the north-west.
901 Respuestas
511411 Vistas