Y yo que finalmente no subi para subir la semana que viene... toma morena!



A level 2 was issued for NE Spain mainly for large to very large hail, severe downbursts and heavy rainfall amounts. An isolated tornado event is possible.

area to the north and falling pressure/heights west of Portugal allow a shift of the EML plume a bit to the north/northeast ... now also covering all of N-Spain and parts of extreme SW France with 7.5 to 8 K/km mid-level lapse rates. A mixture of onshore flow due to the diurnal peak strength of the Spanish thermal low over NE Spain and inland moving sea breeze fronts once again results in high BL moisture over most of N/NE Spain. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper tens will be common with regional peaks in excess of 20 °C. This combined with the steepening lapse rates results in moderate to high MLCAPE values with most models showing 1000 to 2000 J/kg over NE Spain into the Pyrenees and 2000 to 3000 J/kg from the western Pyrenees to the Cordillera Cantábrica and to the Sierra de la Demanda. Higher values /extreme CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE / can't be ruled out.
The exact temporal and regional shear distribution is a bit hard to determine due to the passage of at least two mid/upper waves. The first one induces 15 to 20 m/s 0-6 km shear over NE Spain during the daytime hours with some weakening forecast around sunset to 10 to 15 m/s. With the approach of the second impulse during the night, DLS remains constant at 10 to 15 m/s, so plenty of shear to work with. Forecast soundings reveal good veering with height and nice shear profiles within the hail growth layer.
The main uncertainty will be the magnitude of initiation, as models like GFS and EZ still show ongoing QPF differences. Nevertheless, we expect at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms either due to strong diabatic heating or due to the passage of those mid/upper waves. Any storm which evolves will see rapid to explosive development into well organized mutlicells or supercells. Fat CAPE profiles within the hail growth layer in combination with aforementioned shear profiles and steep lapse rates favor large to very large hail with any mature thunderstorm. Hail size might exceed 5 cm in diameter for a few events. Especially when moving a bit inland, an increase in LCLs is noted and deeply mixed subcloud layers (locally up to 600 hPa) also show an enhanced risk for severe downburst events. Also, given amount of CAPE and regional enhanced LL moisture depth/low LCLs, an isolated tornado event can't be ruled out despite weak LL shear profiles. Enhanced helicity along either mesoscale boundaries or due to local mountainous wind regimes might induce enough shear for an isolated event.
During the evening hours, thunderstorms grow upscale into a few clusters. A movement to the east might be possible given the predominant westerly flow regime, but strong cold pools could drive those clusters in various directions ... that's why we added SW-France also into a level 1 despite very low-end QPF signals from most models. Large hail and strong to severe wind gusts next to heavy rainfall amounts can be expected.

The level 2 was issued for those areas, where all models agreeded in initiation. The level 1 however was issued far to the south (even further south what models show) due to expected mid-level (capped) elevated instability, which should activate a few storms at least on an isolated scale. Thunderstorms keep going all night long especially along the Pyrenees, where an overnight thunderstorm cluster likely offers ongoing chances for severe thunderstorm reports until 06Z.

Boloncio sobre Lleida ahora mismo. Y parece cargadito de relámpagos. Voy a hacer faroling.

Tormenta en Vizcaya que tiene pinta de ser severa.

A ver que reportes nos traen los foreros de la zonas afectadas

Lo gordo será en Francia pero a ver si pillamos por el Cantábrico



.. N-Spain, SW/W and N-France ...

Initiation during the daytime hours is a bit uncertain with no noticeable forcing mechanism seen until 18Z. Overnight thunderstorm activity (from last night) likely continues until noon with numerous clusters moving to the N/NE. This activity however either weakens until noon (W-France) or moves towards Benelux (see paragraph above). Thereafter, forecast soundings show only weak capping until 18Z and either orography, outflow boundaries or the frontal circulation of the quasi-stationary front might assist in isolated CI over W/N-France. 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, 20 to 25 m/s DLS and ongoing pronounced veering indicate a high possibility for any developing thunderstorm to achieve rotation with all kind of severe possible ... including very large hail (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm), severe downbursts and heavy rainfall amounts.

Around sunset and during the night, conditions for scattered CI improve over the SE Bay of Biscay and SW France with falling surface pressure next to an approaching PVA maximum at mid-levels from the west. Scattered intense multicells/supercells likely evolve over N-Spain into SW-France around sunset with 20 to 30 m/s DLS and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Very large hail (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm), severe downbursts, excessive rainfall amounts and an isolated tornado event are forecast. Rapid upscale growth into a large MCS over the SE Bay of Biscay is forecast which moves to the NE, affecting W-central France during the night with heavy rain, large hail and severe wind gusts. Another large thunderstorm cluster probably evolves over W-France in response to increasing BL convergence ahead of the consolidating broad low-level surface pressure area over SW-France. Despite the overnight hours, forecast soundings still show a good chance for surface based activity along and south of the frontal boundary, where 800 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 20 m/s DLS overlap. Multicells and a few supercells with large to very large hail (hail diamater in excess of 5 cm), strong to severe wind gusts and flash-flood producing rainfall amounts are forecast. In addition, improving LL wind field enhances the tornado risk over W-France. Those severe thunderstorm clusters continue until 06Z (and beyond) over NW/N/NE France.

The level 1 area was expanded a bit to the southeast over NE Spain to include the low chance for a few mountain storms during the evening and overnight hours. Shear/CAPE would favor organized DMC with large hail and severe wind gusts.

Cita de: Bixu en Viernes 26 Julio 2013 01:29:12 AM
Lo gordo será en Francia pero a ver si pillamos por el Cantábrico

Pues sí. Menudo SCM se ha formado sobre el Golfo de Vizcaya y ha explotado literalmente al entrar por el SW francés. Se han contabilizado por el Mapa de Rayos Europeo, hasta más de 14000 descargas eléctricas. Yo desde luego le hubiese puesto sin cortapisas, directamente el NIVEL 3

Un CCM casi con total seguridad
Menuda metralla de rayos en las Landas francesas
Nuestra red ha captado 10500 rayos en unas pocas horas, sorprende sobre todo que en 1 hora alcanzó un pico de algo mas de 5000 rayos (todos ellos a tierra) una autentica salvajada de 2 rayos al segundo...

La cosa hoy viene fuerte...





Eastern Spain

Upslope flow of moist Mediterranean air below and elevated mixed layer will allow for CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg during the day. An approaching short-wave trough is expected in the afternoon and evening hours and increasing low-level convergence is expected. Main limiting factor is a strong capping inversion, but current thinking is that the cap will break especially across the mountains with the approaching mid-level trough axis. Strong vertical wind shear (20 m/s 0-6 km and 15 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear) will support multicells and supercells capable of producing large or very large hail. Additionally, severe wind gusts are forecast. Across north-eastern Spain, increasing low-level vertical wind shear will also enhance the risk of a tornado in the evening hours. Main rason for the level 1 forecast is the uncertainty of initiation. With higher storm coverage, a level 2 will likely be required.


Esto da el traductor... algo es algo   

Flujo de pendiente ascendente de aire mediterráneo húmedo abajo y elevada capa mixta permitirá CABO superior a 1000 J / kg durante el día. Una acercarse vaguada de onda corta está prevista para la tarde y horas de la tarde y se espera que el aumento de la convergencia de bajo nivel. Factor limitante principal es una inversión fuerte limitación, pero el pensamiento actual es que el tapón se rompe en especial a través de las montañas con el eje de la vaguada de nivel medio se aproxima. Fuerte cizalladura vertical del viento (20 m / s 0-6 km y 15 m / s 0-3 km de corte grueso) apoyará multicells y supercélulas capaces de producir granizo grande o muy grande. Además, las ráfagas de viento fuertes se pronostican. Al otro lado noreste de España, aumento de la cizalladura vertical del viento de bajo nivel también aumentará el riesgo de que un tornado en horas de la noche. Rason principal para el pronóstico del nivel 1 es la incertidumbre de la iniciación. Con la cobertura de tormenta mayor, es probable que se requiera un nivel 2.

Suerte cazadores!

ESTOFEX, nivel 2 para mañana en amplias zonas del SW europeo, incluido el norte de España, con posibilidad de ampliarse a nivel 3 por posible derecho. Avisos amarillos también en zonas del N-NE de España, pero me da que mañana los ampliarán en extensión y alguno pasará a color naranja.

Pues si... ojito hoy. La discursion me la leere hoy con calma pero ojala pudiera ir para el norte y tambieb Francia. que bien pinta

El que quiera traducir el Estofex que ponga este enlace: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=en&tl=ca&u=http%3A%2F%2Festofex.org%2F&sandbox=1

MARTES 13 DE AGOSTO




DISCUSSION

... N-Spain, parts of E/SE France, SW Germany, parts of Switzerland and W-Austria ... [...]


Over N-Spain, another weak impulse crosses the Pyrenées during the afternoon/evening hours from west to east. DLS will be weaker (10 to 15 m/s range), but MLCAPE probably exceeds 1000 J/kg. A few large hail and strong to severe downburst events are possible. Upscale growth into a few loosely organized nocturnal thunderstorm clusters is possible as they move E/SE into the more unstable air mass. Heavy rain, marginal hail and gusty winds will be the risk.

AVISO NARANJA DE AEMET por lluvias (tormentas) en la provincia de León:

Nivel de riesgo Importante

Riesgo Importante

Fenómeno    
Lluvias

Precipitación acumulada en una hora : 40 mm

Ámbito Geográfico
   Meseta

Hora de comienzo
   lunes, 12 agosto 2013 a las 20:00 hora oficial

Hora de finalización
   lunes, 12 agosto 2013 a las 22:00 hora oficial

Probabilidad
   >70%

Evolución
   
Se han recogido 44mm en una hora en la Laguna de Somoza por una tormenta muy fuerte. En las proximas horas continuarán las tormentas en los alrededores disminuyendo la intensidad. Es probable que se haya registrado granizo mayor de 3 cm

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Y es que es impresionante el dato de los 43,8 mm que han caido entre las 19 y las 20 horas en la automática de AEMET de Lagunas de Somoza.

Y ojo, que entre las 18 y las 20 h en Lagunas de Somoza han caido 60,6 mm, absolutamente brutal