Permitidme que me tome la licencia de postear aqui sin aportar nada, pero Gale, andhis, majalijar y compañia nos lo merecemos...
Nombran incluso a Sierra Nevada, me emociono y todo...
Habla de indices de esos de sondeos altos y valores de helicidad creciendo sobre todo al sur de Sierra Nevada, con posibilidad de alguna supercelula, granizo grande, viento fuerte y tornados...
...Gulf of Cadiz, the Strait of Gibraltar,eastern Portugal, most parts of Spain, the Alboran Channel, coastal areas of Morocco, Algeria and the Balearic Islands ...Although run-to-run consistency was not good, the current model pool agrees quite well on the evolution and thunderstorm coverage.
At upper-levels a upper-level trough will shift eastwards, while weakening. As a result of a mitigating geopotential height gradient, jet streaks also weaken and the overall tilt of this system should stay neutral.
The main uncertainty was if and how strong the Sirocco could evolve over parts of northern Algeria with offshore - advection of a dry and hot desert airmass.
Models now want to bring an open wave over the Strait of Gibraltar and have no longer a closed circulation over the western Alboran Channel. The new AFWA MM5 run indicates 20-30kt easterly winds ( a possibly levante event ) over this area, which should feed moisture westwards and should suppress any offshore flow from the Algerian mainland . Yesterday, the Atlas mountains were a borderline between 18-23°C dewpoints to the north and 5-10°C to the south ( although yesterday's storms should have weakened the strong gradient somewhat ).
Thunderstorms over SW / central and northern Spain and Portugal will continue during the morning hours and should go on during the daytime with a gradual decrease from the west. As 850 temperature stay quite warm and mid-levels steepen somewhat, we should see weakly capped 500 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and topography / strong forcing will subserve for scattered thunderstorms. Shear will be too weak for any enhanced severe weather threat and main risk will be strong gusts and marginal hail in stronger pulse storms.
A low-end level-1 over norther Spain was issued mainly due to strong 0-3km CAPE release and numerous short-lived spin-ups look likely with the focus along numerous convergence zones, forecast by GFS.
More robust instability release ( ~ 1kJ/kg MLCAPE ), DLS of 15-25 m/s and at least somewhat enhanced LL shear will be present south of the Sierra Nevada Mountains during the morning hours. SRH-3km values rapidly increase towards the south and a few supercells with mainly a large hail / severe wind gust threat can be expected although low LCLs also support an isolated tornado risk.The thunderstorm coverage gets more complicated over the Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Channel during the rest of the day. Strong forcing, a cooling lower troposphere, the aforementioned good environment at low-levels and abundant mid-level moisture in GFS are enough points to go on and bump up the probabilities over those areas. We don't want to ignore a persistent QPF minimum during the past few model runs north of the Morocco-Algerian border and lowered probabilities in this area.
Overall kinematic and thermodynamic parameters indicate a favorable environment for rapid storm organisation. There is an enhanced severe wind gust risk along the coastal areas of Algeria and in addition increasing large hail probabilities further inland, where SRH values increase substantially and lapse rates steepen.
LCLs are not too high and there are hints on locally enhanced LL shear, which could support an isolated tornado report, but overall threat seems quite low ATM.
Another maximum of storms should develop somewhere west of the Balearic Islands during the evening and night hours. Shear could be enough for multicells around the Balearic Islands, but will be too weak further towards the north for any storm organisation.
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