Ciclón Tropical Cat.5 NARELLE (08.S - Huracán Cat.4 S.S - NW Australia)

Todo parece indicar que que Narelle está inmersa en todo un proceso de rápida intensificación (ERC), y destacar el gigantesco,compacto y robusto CDO que sigue expandiéndose por todos los cuadrantes de su LLCC... por lo que a no muy tardar, debería de mostrar su Eye.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
3:08 AM CST January 9 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (984 hPa) was located near 12.5S 117.0E or 830 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 116.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.3S 116.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.9S 115.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.4S 113.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1406 UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A central dense overcast has formed with a convective burst over the Low level circulation center. Peripheral banding in southwest sector, good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded center pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good ASCAT pass.

The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia.



 

NARELLE alcanza la Cat.1 S.S. y sigue su periplo paralelo a la costa NW australiana.

Categoría 3 para Australia.



 

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY THREE (05U)
3:04 PM WST January 9 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (972 hPa) located at 13.2S 116.4E or 840 km north of Karratha and 1000 km north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to develop further as it moves on its south southwest track towards the Northwest Cape. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area Friday morning, then extend west to Exmouth and Coral Bay later Friday or early Saturday. Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall possible.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 116.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.5S 115.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.3S 114.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.4S 113.2E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Sigue sin fortalecerse, pero aún no consigue cerrar su centro. Parece como si estuviera padeciendo los efectos de una moderada cizalladura de componente este-noreste, que desplaza ligeramente toda la convección al oeste de su LLCC.

Pues según las últimas imágenes del SAT, ha pegado un "petardazo" de no te menees. Topes muy fríos y fuerte convección tapando su centro. Sube a 08SNARELLE.75kts-967mb-140S-1157E.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south
southwest towards Northwest Cape and gradually intensify.

08SNARELLE.80kts-963mb-162S-1149E



Impresionante Outflow, por no decir su formidable organización y estructura que presenta Narelle en estos momentos, a ver si se decide a mostrar su Eye de una vez por todas, libre de cualquier tipo de nubosidad, que ya esta tardando demasiado.

Sigue intensificando vientos y bajada en picado de la presión.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 114.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 947 hectoPascals

                                       

Impresionante Outflow, por no decir su formidable organización y estructura que presenta Narelle en estos momentos, a ver si se decide a mostrar su Eye de una vez por todas, libre de cualquier tipo de nubosidad, que ya esta tardando demasiado.

Dicho y hecho. 08SNARELLE.110kts-941mb-177S-1131E

08SNARELLE.115kts-937mb-183S-1126E



 

Categoría 5 para el Servicio Meteorológico de Australia.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.5 degrees South 111.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

Su Eye comienza a fluctuar ligeramente, puede que este comenzando a sustituirlo en las próximas horas.

08SNARELLE.75kts-967mb-232S-1100E

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/Hteq40--oSc?version=3&amp;" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/Hteq40--oSc?version=3&amp;</a>

Poco a poco se va desgastando rumbo sur, sin afectación directa a las costas de Australia, pero dejándose sentir con un buen temporal marítimo en toda la costa noroccidental australiana.