joooooder!!!
vaya bichooo!!!
es sorprerdente lo rápido que se ha intensificado.
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.5S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
120 KT 
, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
125 KT 
, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.0S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 75.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINPOINT EYE AND
EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG FEEDER BANDS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS REFLECTS THIS INCREASING TREND AND IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON EYE FIXES.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC CLEO
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERACT
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT QUICKLY EASTWARD WHILE THE
WESTERN STR BUILDS EASTWARD, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH RECURVES
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.
TC CLEO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
36 DUE TO MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND
090900Z.//
NNNN
por tanto, se espera quealcance los 125 nudos...poco me parece a mi...
torre, otro para el topic...
un saludo
33 Respuestas
21659 Vistas