RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/11/20072008
1.A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 57.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS :
4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
980 HPA5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :
55 KT6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION:
DEEP1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/15 06 UTC: 14.9S/55.9E,
MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.24H: 2008/02/15 18 UTC: 15.6S/54.6E,
MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/16 06 UTC: 16.1S/53.8E,
MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.48H: 2008/02/16 18 UTC: 16.6S/53.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/17 06 UTC: 17.1S/52.5E,
MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.72H: 2008/02/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/51.7E,
MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0- AND CI=4.0-
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI, 1450Z) DEPICT AN IMPROVING
ORGANISATION
OF
DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE CENTER (COMPARE TO AQUA PASS
OF
0942Z)
EVEN IF A SLIGHT TILT OF THE VORTEX STILL EXIST.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWARDS ALONG
THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING
FLOW. IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (
WEAKER EASTERLY
SHEAR
IS EXPECTED ON T
HE FORECAST TRACK- CF. CIMSS DATA)
14/00Z ECMWF RUN DOESN'T FORECAST ANYMORE THE TRACK MORE
SOUTHSOUTHWESWARDS BEYOND THE 17, ONLY A MORE SOUTHWASTWARDS
COMPONENT.
MOREOVER, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF IVAN'S LIFE,
SPREAD
ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM HAS REDUCED SENSITIVELY ...
GIVEN A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE ON
THE GUIDANCE. SO THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEM SOLUTIONS.
Lo remarcado en negrita es lo importante. Creo que se entiende. Si alguien no entiende algo, que lo pregunte, y contestare muy gustosamente