Mmmm, dudas me deja el interior. Esos
40kt son cortos, puesto que la imagen microondas me sugiere que ese puntito puede ser algo más... No se, tal vez 50kt no, pero unos 45kt en el próximo parte del JTWC si cuadrarían más
Por lo pronto, Nadi ya lo cataloga como Cat. 1
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA][CAT1] LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 161.4W
AT 080000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS WINDS OF
40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
OVERALL
ORGANISATION IS GOOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS DT3.0,PT=3.0 AND MET 2.5. FT BASED
ON DT.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW
INTO AREA OF DECRESING SHEAR.MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHWARDS.
FORECASTS:
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 13.1S 159.7W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 14.2S 158.5W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 15.4S 157.6W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 16.9S 157.3W MOV SSW 04 KT WITH
55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
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