Adrián pierde fuelle poco a poco. A partir de ahora desgaste progresivo. SST a partir de ahora en torno a 27º-28º.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE
AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS.
WITH NO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF.
Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.By Jeff Masters.
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