Huracán ALEX Categoría 2 (01L Caribe SW- P. Yucatán- GOM - México)

Cuanta más fuerza alcance antes de entrar al GOM, más girará al Norte.
Si es TS débil irá a Texas, si es TS fuerte o Huracán irá a Louisiana. Y en esas está el ECMWF, deshojando la margarita.

Jeff Masters ha publicado en su blog que le da 80% de posibilidades de que se convierta en la Tormenta Tropical Alex durante la semana que viene.
Tiene bastante clara su formación.

¿80%? Yo no leo eso por ningún lado... 

mmmm, creo que me he liado...

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

Lo leí rápido y mal...
Perdona la confusión Fox
Amplío de su comentario.



Track forecast for 93L

NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean.

A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.

mmmm, creo que me he liado...

Citar

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

Lo leí rápido y mal...
Perdona la confusión Fox

Es que me había ilusionado y todo... pero ya me parecía raro que JM de un 80% de probabilidades a algo... es demasiado listo como para mojarse tanto 

De momento, mucha convección pero nada de organización, por acá por Cuba mucho calor, la humedad ambiental está por las nubes, ninguna estación se bajaba del 60% al mediodía con 30ºC de promedio y valores tan burros como 70 y 80%.

Mirando los loops del satélite parece existir cierta circulación en niveles altos al sur de la Española y en superficie al W de Jamaica, así va a demorar bastante en organizarse.

Saludos 

Primera parada Yucatán...

40% de chance.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

Imagen de Accuweather.



se acerca a zonas con cizaladura de 5kt...

 

Mal comienzo de temporada, y seguramente una mala continuación.

Leyendo algún foro americano, veo como la gente está literalmente rezando por que todo pase... y me refiero a la conjugación de TC y el vertido de crudo en el GOM.

Un ejemplo: la playa de Pensacola, sacada de Storm2k.

Acabo de verlo....madre mia....
mirad éste video...
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/qO193f8xAls" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/qO193f8xAls</a>
Espero que éste sea el video más fuerte que tengamos que ver cuando acabe la temporada, pero ya sé que no va a ser así...

y la verdad es que el GFS me empieza a mosquear...
+120h


 

Este desarrollo está siendo más lento que el parto de una burra. 

Jeff Masters se lanza a la piscina.
I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Confía en el descenso de cizalladura al llegar al GOM, y en la tendencia de los modelos a no desarrollar el sistema violentamente.

Además, tenemos nuevo vuelo de los Cazahuracanes programado para mañana.

 

¿Soy yo o eso es un centro de circulación en niveles bajos? Al SE de Jamaica, en los 16N