Huracán FRANK Categoría 1 (09E // G. de TEHUANTEPEC - Costa Oeste México)

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EP, 93, 2010082106,   , BEST,   0, 139N,  934W,  20, 1008, DB


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

En el satélite se ve bastante bién

Sistemas a pares.

9ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada en el EPAC

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EP, 09, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 139N, 930W, 25, 1007, TD

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 93.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/2100Z 13.9N  93.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.9N  93.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.8N  94.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.7N  95.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N  96.6W    55 KT
72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N  98.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Destaco del 1 aviso.....cuidado Kike

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. 



 

De la discusión número 2 ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/220244.shtml

...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST
THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS.  THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS A 85-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 40 KT OF INTENSIFICATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION
THAT BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH KEEPS
THE CENTER OFFSHORE...DOES NOT FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DUE TO THESE THINGS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DOES NOT CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  INSTEAD...IT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE BELOW...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. 

Imagen del radar.

Ya tenemos a FRANK


EP, 09, 2010082212,   , BEST,   0, 139N,  950W,  35, 1004, TS

Así es Kike, y presenta muy buen aspecto.


Trayectorias.


Ships roza los 65 kts en +5 días, pero el ambiente en altura no es muy óptimo, con cizalladuras siempre rondando los 15-20 kts....

A ver como evoluciona, por que el europeo ha sido muy consitente en este sistema.

 

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.


THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

NHC otorga en el aviso Nº4 40 kts.

De hecho se plantean que alcance 70 kts

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

Están actualizando ahora....

Sale el parte.


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221458
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5
FROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT FRANK IS LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY MOIST
LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD TEMPER
INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN 0804 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND 1201 UTC SSM/I PASS WERE HELPFUL IN
LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
270/6...AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRANK TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A DAY OR SO...AND REMAIN ON THAT HEADING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE FRANK WILL GET TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST.  BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS
ABOUT A 20 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AFFECTING ANY INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 14.0N  95.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.1N  96.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.2N  97.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N  99.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 100.8W    65 KT
72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Le suben el pico de intensidad máxima ligeramente.