Huracán JULIA Categoría 4 (12L - Atlántico Medio)

Julia ya es un huracán categoria 1.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 140837
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE.  ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24
TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
JULIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.1N  29.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N  30.1W    70 KT
24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N  31.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.7N  33.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  36.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  42.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  48.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Oooootro Huracán....



Me da un ''feeling'' de que roza la cat.3.....

- ATCF, 70 nudos.

AL, 12, 2010091412,   , BEST,   0, 160N,  292W,  70,  984, HU

Up to 75 kts by the NHC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/1500Z 16.2N  29.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N  30.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N  32.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.3N  34.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.2N  37.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N  44.3W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  49.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 32.5N  50.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Me recuerda a la parejita ''CELIA-DARBY''.

En primera plana IGOR, al Este, el sistema que nos interesa en este tópic, JULIA.



 

JULIA me empieza a parecer una amenaza seria para Azores. Como Tormenta Tropical, pero con vida a la altura del archipiélago portugues

Y por ende, empiezo a ver efectos colaterales en Egpaña 

Nuevo parte, sin cambios en fuerza

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 16.7N  30.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N  31.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N  33.1W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.3N  35.7W    75 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N  39.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  46.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 29.1N  50.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Pero...

ALTHOUGH
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...
JULIA COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR
MATERIALIZES.

Si JULIA pasará sobre aguas frias, al menos, perderá algo de fuerza. Aunque luego regrese a aguas más cálidas, si esa cizalladura que dicen arriba se cumple, estará condenada a perder fuelle lentamente

Veremos

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
IGOR ADVERSELY AFFECTING JULIA.

Se mantiene en 75 kts.

JULIA me empieza a parecer una amenaza seria para Azores. Como Tormenta Tropical, pero con vida a la altura del archipiélago portugues

Y por ende, empiezo a ver efectos colaterales en Egpaña 

Interesante eso que comentas, aunque yo creo que IGOR la va a afectar tal y como ocurrió en el caso de Fiona.

De todas formas eso no impedirá que se acerque a Azores, seguiremos atentos...

Así está ta temperatura del agua. Yo apostaría más por una trayectoria inicial hacia las Canarias como TS, pero yo tengo muy poquita idea. Espero que os sirva.

JULIA categoría 2

90,  974, HU

Los topes nubosos son muy frios y el OjO Se define cada vez mejor 

Los topes nubosos son muy frios y el OjO Se define cada vez mejor  

- ATCF: 90 nudos, Categoría 2.


AL, 12, 2010091500,   , BEST,   0, 163N,  305W,  90,  974, HU



- Sensor SSMIS, 85GHz:  

Y yo pensando que ni llegaría a huracán 

Según el NHC, el outflow es algo limitado en la parte E debido a la cizalladura, y que no habrá muchos cambios en intensidad. Visto lo visto, los 100kt no son descartables