Huracán LESLIE Categoría 1 (12-L. - MDR - Bermudas - Atlántico Norte)

Bermuda...

Bastante aire seco al NW, hacia donde se supone que tendría que ir:

Sigue expuesto al NW, creo:

Efectivamente Dani  , el aire seco sigue inyectándose en toda su circulación y haciendo que su LLCC quede expuesto de manera parcial o total, aunque a raíz de las ultimas animaciones que has puesto, se puede observar de manera más o menos clara que el aire seco se esta reduciendo, y su centro comienza levemente a cubrirse nuevamente de convección no muy profunda y quedando la mayor cantidad de actividad tormentosa desplazada a todo el este del sistema, pero esto ya es cosa también de los niveles altos de cizalla que reinan por la zona.

12LLESLIE.55kts-994mb-251N-626W

04/1745 UTC   25.1N     62.6W       T2.5/3.0         LESLIE





Bonita imagen del canal visible donde se puede observar claramente los efectos nocivos de la cizalladura y del aire seco en un sistema tropical.



Nueva Inglaterra y Terranova se van a comer un Huracán de cierta entidad  , las condiciones ambientales siguen siendo favorables en las inmediaciones de Bermudas, por lo que un RI en la zona por parte de Leslie esta más que asegurado.

 

Tiene un montón de aire seco al W y NW, pero se va creando su zona...




Podría interactuar con Michael a la lara, bueno, más que interactuar, comerselo.

Echad un vistazo a las últimas imágenes del SAT en el visible. Sube a 60 Kts. y esta vez parece que ha metido el "turbo". Pobre Bermuda.

Huracán a la vista Sudoku, sigue el guión previsto 

Huracán Categoría 1 Leslie

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT.

Y Dvorak actualiza 

  DATE   |  TIME  | BASIN  |  DT |  FT |  CI |  LAT  |  LON   | PRESS | WNDSPD | ID  |      NAME       | PCN | ANALYST
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------
 20120905 |  0545  |  ATL   | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |  25.4 |   62.9 |  1000 |    45  | 12L | LESLIE          |  5  | AS
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------
 20120905 |  1145  |  ATL   | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |  25.9 |   62.4 |   994 |    55  | 12L | LESLIE          |  3  | EG
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------
 20120905 |  1745  |  ATL   | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |  25.8 |   62.5 |   987 |    65  | 12L | LESLIE          |  3  | EG
----------|--------|--------|-----|-----|-----|-------|--------|-------|--------|-----|-----------------|-----|---------


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 25.7N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  62.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 26.8N  63.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 27.2N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 29.0N  64.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  09/1200Z 32.4N  64.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H  10/1200Z 39.5N  62.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART 

---

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051443
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT
12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY
ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR
SO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96
HOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND
REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

LESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS
COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96
HOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB
WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS
GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

 

Here We Go, directo Bermudas/Canadá:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 052055
TCDAT2

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LESLIE HAS EXPANDED BY MORE THAN 100 NMI TO
THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1700
UTC...BUT A RECENT BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE
EYE. SSMIS AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE COULD
BE UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN
AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.3/72 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT. LESLIE HAS WOBBLED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THAT
ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY JUST DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE EYE. THE
LATEST GFS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...WHILE
THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SINCE THESE TWO MODELS
ARE NOW CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH
LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS. COLD WATER UPWELLING
BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS A
RESULT OF THE GFS MODEL CREATING A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE...WHICH
FURTHER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT 200 MB WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRONG
HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS
REMAINS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.

LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...
COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE
LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 25.9N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 26.1N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 26.5N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 26.8N  63.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 27.2N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 29.3N  64.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 34.0N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 42.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

La verdad es que el sistema es mucho más grande que Michael, pero le cuesta muchísimo organizarse: