Lo triste es el que el último tweet de la Aemet es de hace seis horas....!!!! Hablando aún de la trayectoria hacia el oeste de Canarias.

Leslie se fortalece ligeramente, al menos de forma temporal, según muestran tanto las imágenes de satélite como las estimaciones ADT que esta tarde no pasaban de 65-70kt. Está aumentando la extensión de topes nubosos fríos <-50ºC, con picos puntualmente inferiores a -70ºC. No me extraña que recuperara los 80kt en el próximo parte si se mantiene así un par de horas más.



Saludos

El último parte del NHC creo que no se ha puesto. Lo cuelgo porque es histórico. Y los próximos también lo serán.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121749
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 65A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
200 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 26.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 26.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeastward is expected to continue through
Saturday morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will
pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the
southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday night, and
move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Leslie is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night. Additional weakening is forecast on
Sunday, with Leslie expected to dissipate by Monday after it moves
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will likely bring strong winds to portions of
Portugal and Spain Saturday night and Sunday. Please see products
from your local meteorological service for more information on this
hazard.

RAINFALL:  Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) across southern and central
portions of Portugal and Spain through Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Y no estoy tan seguro de que sea post-tropical cuando alcance la península porque se está acercando muy rápido (>50 km/h).

https://twitter.com/picazomario/status/1050831314348212224?s=19

El UKMO es tremendo para Galicia

La Autoridad Nacional de Protección Civil portuguesa ya ha publicado una nota alertando de la situación, explicando los efectos esperables y recordando una serie de medidas preventivas:

https://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=10156277737818183

Por lo demás, parece que seguimos sin poder afinar mucho más.
Muy buen recordatorio de Vigorro. Aquí tenéis un artículo donde se revisa aquella situación de 1842:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-89-2-191

  Entraría con más fuerza y más al Noreste 😋😍

https://es.sat24.com/es/mo

Ahora mismo derechita para el Golfo de Cádiz 

Cita de: MeteoChiclana en Viernes 12 Octubre 2018 23:21:17 PM
https://es.sat24.com/es/mo

Ahora mismo derechita para el Golfo de Cádiz 

Para mi que va hacia Lisboa...

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/h5-loop-ir4.html

[emoji106]nose yo..

Harmonie actualizado. Que se vayan preparando por Lisboa 

Pongo como curiosidad estas dos capturas de la predicción AEMET para el domingo en Andalucía vista a dos horas diferentes de hoy viernes:

Captura 1 a las 12:53
Captura 2 a las 16:45

Y todavía puede dar más vueltas.

Esta impredecibilidad es una de las grandezas de la meteo.