Cita de: Repibelo en Viernes 14 Septiembre 2012 15:08:05 PM
Trayectorias

¿Mayores opciones que ayer de llegar más al oeste?

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150852
TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING...
ALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM
TAFB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE
76 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

NADINE CONTINUES ITS RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 050/13.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT
COULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF.  AFTER
THREE DAYS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THESE MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...AND THEN IS SHIFTED
TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.

NADINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF SO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALL GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS AT LEAST 25-35 KT OF SHEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FORECAST A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT WITH NADINE IN 72-96 HR...
WHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE
RESULTS OF THIS INTERACTION ARE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ANY OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 30.7N  51.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  15/1800Z 31.1N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  16/0600Z 31.1N  46.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  16/1800Z 31.0N  43.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  17/0600Z 31.4N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  18/0600Z 33.0N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  19/0600Z 35.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

No entiendo porque le dan solo 65 kt si esta más fuerte.

CitarUW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  15 SEP 2012    Time :   084500 UTC
      Lat :   30:55:44 N     Lon :   50:48:35 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 969.3mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.6     4.5     4.5

Center Temp : -73.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  140km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1015mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.6 degrees

Le cuesta crear un ojo. Si no fuera por la cizalladura, pienso que se convertiría en un major.

¡Vamos Nadine!

12z Best Track up to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2012091512, , BEST, 0, 308N, 506W, 70, 983, HU

¿Ojo is coming? ¿habemus ojo?





Bueno, oficialmente sube a 70kt 

Citar000
WTNT34 KNHC 151448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 49.9W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST.  NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEGINNING TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Cada vez más posibilidades de que gire al oeste/noroeste antes de tocar las Azores...

Los modelos de orientación andan bastante perdidos en cuanto al rumbo que va a tomar NADINE, porque de momento sigue el flujo del W y el camino que le abre esa DANA hacia el Este, más rápido de lo que mostraba el consenso GFS-ECMWF en un principio, pero una vez llegado al Sur-SW de Azores, lo dejan estancado en esa zona durante un par de dias, para luego mandarlo en todas las direcciones, como si fuese una ruleta rusa. A ver donde cae la bolita.

Menudo huracan...

Esta chica no va a tener ojo:

Cat. 1 ahora mismo y así parece que estará las proximas horas, con movimento hacia el E acercandose a Azores.

Los modelos generales no la mueven del Atlántico medio, con una adelante y atrás...




De todas fromas no está del todo claro, ni mucho menos, y cualquier interacción con danas o vaguaadas puede dar cosas como estas:



Europeo a 120h.

Hola!!.
No tiene pinta de tener ya su Eye   y tampoco se ve que vaya a coger mejor pinta de la que ya ha tenido, se supone que se mantendrá en los  70 kts = 129.64 km/h en las proximas horas y ya poco despues irá perdiendo algo de fuerza(Eso en la teoría...) 



Se mareará cerca de las Azores   ya lo iremos viendo.

Saludossss.

Nuestra amiga, que no va a parte alguna...






- Qué cosas; interacción con la baja y génesis no tropical:

CitarBY DAYS 4 AND 5...NADINE IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC
MOTION OCCURRING WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MERGING COULD
OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NON-TROPICAL LOW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DISCOUNTING THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY
BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS IS EXPECTED.