1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...IS CENTERED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A ver cuánto podrá resistir nuestra querida Ophelia. 

80%



Ya está aquí.

16LOPHELIA.25kts-1010mb-185N-595W

Nuevamente como Depresión Tropical.

Aire seco al N y NE del sistema. Veremos a ver para donde tiran los restos de Ophelia.

Citar1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
OPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES.  THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A
HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 17.6N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  28/0600Z 18.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  28/1800Z 18.7N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 19.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  30/1800Z 25.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  01/1800Z 29.5N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Pues nada, comenzamos de nuevo.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
STRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS...
BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS

De momento, sigue como Depresión

...OPHELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT OPHELIA HAS
REGAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING

Recupera estatus

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

OPHELIA
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STRENGTHENING

Según leo en el NHC, la cizalladura descenderá proximamente, permitiendo a la tormenta alcanzar la categoría de huracán. Parece que entrará en juego una mejora sustancial del outflow al gestarse altas presiones al N de la tormenta (esas mismas que han impedido que PHILIPPE se mueva al Atlántico Norte)

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 61.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH... 50kt...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

Parece que está gestando un eyewall, si se observamos como la convección más profunda adquiere forma de "coma"

Precioso el Visible de OPHELIA en estos momentos, con 60 kts-991mb.. Tufa a huracán cat.1 

ELF sobre OPHELIA según el último visible, y eyewall consolidandose en el microondas SSMIS

No puedo subir imágenes. A tenor de lo visto, podrá ser declarado Huracán en el próximo parte del NHC

THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BUT NOT HOSTILE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT OPHELIA FROM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF
THE DAY

Cita de: Torre en Jueves 29 Septiembre 2011 18:50:42 PM
No puedo subir imágenes. A tenor de lo visto, podrá ser declarado Huracán en el próximo parte del NHC

Imagen de cuando escribías estas líneas, en efecto, consolidando el eyewall y mostrando como bien dices un "Eye Like Feature", camino a ser huracán si no lo es ya.

Saludos 

Aún no es huracán pero le quedan horas:
...OPHELIA ALMOST A HURRICANE... (Ophelia casi huracán)

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

Teóricamente le quedarían 4mph de incremento en el viento para ser huracán.

 
Según la Marina, OPHELIA ya es huracán Cat.1 con 65kts-987mb.. Ahora a esperar la actualización del NHC.
Saludos.