Cambios de la trayectoria prevista para PAUL, por parte del NHC. La Navy aun no se ha pronunciado, pero puede llegar a impactar como Cat. 3 en las costas de Baja California Sur.

Cita de: Sudoku en Lunes 15 Octubre 2012 23:52:18 PM
Cambios de la trayectoria prevista para PAUL, por parte del NHC. La Navy aun no se ha pronunciado, pero puede llegar a impactar como Cat. 3 en las costas de Baja California Sur.

Zona muy vulnerable a este tipo de eventos... y mucho más con todo un Categoría 3.



Gracias por el seguimiento, yo ando muy liado 

Tremendo Paul, ha tenido una Ri de libro.

La evolución en las ultimas 12 horas ha sido brutal.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152044
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY.  THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO
WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED
TO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY
SHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF
WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT
IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Gracias por la colaboración en el seguimiento.

Un saludo.

Paul baja a cat. 2 con 95kts y 967 mb...y desde hace ya un par de horas el extremo sur de la península de baja california comienza a sentir sus efectos de tormenta tropical de ráfagas de hasta 50 km/hr....se reporta lluvia de 32mm 



También hay que comentar que la trayectoria se ajusta aun mas sobre tierra :O

Paul comienza entrar a tierra cerca del puerto de san carlos, baja california sur, como cat 2 con 90kts (970mb)....sigue existiendo el riesgo moderado que Paul brinque la península y golpee el sur del estado de Sonora, esperemos que no haga mucho desastre 

Paul ya impactó la baja california sur y se degrada a cat1...sigue muy fuerte paul con 80 kts y 975 mb (según noaa)....los modelos ya no ven que entre al golfo y gire antes para ir a mar abierto 

Paul se ha desintegrado totalmente después de impactar contra las costas de la Península de California.



Todo el pescado está vendido me parece a mí...