Huracán PAULA Categoría 2 (18L Golfo de Honduras - Canal de Yucatán)

PAULA  

sorprendente los topes nubosos



En cada imagen se aprecia cada vez mejor el OjO   

PAULA  

sorprendente los topes nubosos



En cada imagen se aprecia cada vez mejor el OjO   

Así es, ya se distingue un ojo que comienza a crecer. Paula sigue evolucionando rápidamente conforme avanza hacia el NW. Habrá que esperar el próximo parte a ver que determina el NHC

PAULA ahora con 60 KT
el NHC espera que alcanze la categoría 2

000
WTNT33 KNHC 120844
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST.  PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

Asi es, a ver si alguien puede cambiar el titulo del topic dado que Paula ya es Huracan Categoria 1 con 65 kts.
Sin cambios en el pronostico de la trayectoria, se espera que alcance 80 kts durante las proximas 24 horas, para posteriormente ir debilitandose al acercarse a la zona de Jamaica.

Muchas gracias Victor!
Vamos a ver que sucede finalmente con Paula, como bien dices, '' las Paulas '' este anho vienen fuertes!
Y ojito que estamos al borde de la hiperactividad de la temporada en cuanto a niveles de ACE, vamos a ver si Paula alcanza una categoria 3, que no queda tan lejos, y las 150 unidades ACE estan superadas.

El satelite da miedo, me recuerda a IDA el anho pasado....

En Quintana Roo aún seguimos en alerta verde, aunque creo que no tardaran en elevar esa alerta a Amarilla. Aqui todavía mucha gente no esta enterada de lo que pasa. El gobierno está en pláticas para determinar si evacúan la isla de cozumel

Ese movimiento tan relativamente lento hacia el NW, para luego recurvar hacia el NE-E y SE, tan cerca de la entrada del Canal, cuando menos es poco creible, sobre todo viendo modelos que dan trayectoria a través del Canal, rumbo al SW de Florida. Me da que está cogiendo "carrerilla" para pegar el salto.
Visible de Paula.

Paula nos enseñaba su amago de ojo en la imagen de 85GHz esta mañana a primera hora


Ahora más fuerte.

Ese movimiento tan relativamente lento hacia el NW, para luego recurvar hacia el NE-E y SE, tan cerca de la entrada del Canal, cuando menos es poco creible, sobre todo viendo modelos que dan trayectoria a través del Canal, rumbo al SW de Florida. Me da que está cogiendo "carrerilla" para pegar el salto.
Visible de Paula.

mmmm......yo creía que era otro sistema independiente el que cojía rumbo Florida.....
Voy a ver eso que comentas

Sudoku, te he contestado en seguimiento general, lo del 2 panel, camino de Florida, no es Paula

---

Ultima imagen del canal de vapor de agua, más que el aire seco, el factor que desencadena el no-desarrollo de Paula es la cizalladura, para nada permisiva ya a partir de la zona de Belice, y toda la Península del Yucatán en general.



A ver que nos cuentan en la discusión desde Miami.

Pues eso, cizalladura que la irá debilitando.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

---

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N  85.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

---

Track oficial


A ver si alcanza ese máximo que pronostican, joer, 9 huracanes en una temporada, y el año pasado tuvimos 9 tormenta tropicales, ver para creer

Interesante articulo del Dr. Jeff Masters sobre Paula:

Hurricane warnings are flying along the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula for Hurricane Paula,  the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of this very active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007  held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. The final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) stores points every six hours--at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. It is likely that Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression at 12 UTC (8am EDT) or 18Z (2pm EDT) yesterday, 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Even though Paula met the criteria for being named a tropical depression yesterday morning, NHC elected not to do so, since it was unclear whether or not passage over land would disrupt the nascent tropical depression (a new tropical depression must demonstrate some staying power before it will get recognized, typically.) In the final HURDAT data base, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1653

    Tracking Info For Hurricane Paula     
        
 

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type


21 GMT 10/11/10  16.0N 84.0W     60       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/12/10  16.8N 84.6W     70        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/12/10  17.6N 85.2W     75        992     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/12/10  18.6N 85.7W     75        991     Category 1 Hurricane