Es verdad, es notable la imagen que presenta a esta hora RICHARD. Sigue con su movimiento W muy lentamente. Mientras no toque tierra debe continuar la intensificación

Ahora si RICHARD se está intensificando 

AL, 19, 2010102312,   , BEST,   0, 158N,  831W,  50, 1000, TS


VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL192010
A. 23/13:43:50Z
B. 15 deg 49 min N
  083 deg 21 min W
C. NA
D. 53 kt
E. 073 deg 24 nm
F. 107 deg 54 kt
G. 074 deg 24 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 21 C / 312 m
J. 24 C / 312 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0719A RICHARD            OB 14
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72KT N QUAD  AT 13:49:30

El NHC ha confirmado vientos de 55 KTs(100 km/h) y presión de 1000 mb. Casi ya es huracán y comentan que se está intensificando rápidamente

...RICHARD RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS COAST...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

Ahhh, que pocos creyentes hay en este foro 

Vaya Richard

De todas formas según la marina son 50kts.





mmmmm, esas 150 unidades de ACE....a por ellas!!

Ya tenemos el parte intermedio.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231752
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...RICHARD MOVING WESTWARD OFFSHORE OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST. RICHARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE
BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY...AND COULD APPROACH THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS AND IN THE BAY ISLANDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...AND BELIZE
WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 7 INCHES.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OF
HONDURAS EARLY SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS LATE SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

Ya ha salido la discusión Nº.12
Destaco:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD
TO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY
TOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.  RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N  84.2W    55 KT
12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.5W    60 KT
24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N  87.2W    65 KT
36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N  88.9W    50 KT
48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  93.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



Siguen confiando en que alcance la Cat.1 antes de tocar tierra en Belice.

Hay un RECON que va a investigar a Richard en las próximas horas, a ver que nos cuenta.

el viento más fuerte superficial es hasta el momento de 57 KT y la presión mas baja 996 mb , además mencionan la formación del  EYEWALL  


000
URNT12 KNHC 240005
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL192010
A. 23/23:48:20Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
 084 deg 14 min W
C. 925 mb 654 m
D. 57 kt
E. 033 deg 16 nm
F. 113 deg 69 kt
G. 034 deg 12 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 765 m
J. 22 C / 759 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0819A RICHARD            OB 09
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 23:44:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 70 KT NW QUAD 23:53:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL FORMING IN NORTHERN HALF OF STORM, LESS THAN 50 PERCENT COMPLETE, RADIUS OF CURVE 25 NM.
;

RICHARD se acerca a la fuerza de Huracán 

60 KT-995 MB

Pues el aviso de las 5 am EDT mantiene a Richard al borde de la Categoria 1, pero aun como Tormenta Tropical con 60 kts.

Sera el Recon el que determine la fuerza final de Richard, quien por otra parte presenta buen aspecto desde el canal de infrarrojo.

RICHARD continúa mejorando su aspecto y a crecido algo más de tamaño 

El avion de reconocimiento ya encuentra vientos de huracán 

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   69 knots (~ 79.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)


Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:   60 knots (~ 69.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:   67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)