Huracán RINA Categoría 2 (18L-México)

Pues la posible trayectoria es rumbo a Quintana Roo como Tormenta Tropical, para después dar un giro al N. Aunque creo que esta trayectoria no será la definitiva

Y nace RINA...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

CORRECTED DISCUSSION SECTION

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INFORMATION FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 16.4N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 16.8N  82.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 17.3N  83.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.7N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 17.9N  86.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 18.9N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 20.0N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

Tiene buen aspecto en la imagen infrarroja y en el track, la Navy le da pico de intensidad de 65 kts. en 4 dias, frente a Yucatán.

En esa trayectoria esta en serio peligro toda la costa de Quintana Roo desde Chetumal hasta Cancún Seguiremos de cerca a este sistema

Aumenta su fuerza un poco.... Pero tremenda pinta tiene 

18LRINA.40kts-1001mb-170N-826W

Aquí en Quintana Roo han emitido la Alerta Verde A estas horas no creo que RINA solo tenga 40 kts, habrá que esperar un informe de un avión de reconocimiento del NOAA

Ya tenemos a RINA, bien por los modelos que acertaron a ver su desarrollo, en especial a uno .....  .

De momento RINA tiene la pinta de lo típico de los sistemas de octubre del Caribe, lento movimiento y los modelos erráticos con mucha incertidubre.

Como muestra el "cono"  del NHC.

Saludos 

El NHC lo tiene claro

...RINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS

De momento, pico de 80kt

 

Posible RI a la vista....

Las imágenes del satélite de RINA son de un CT bien saludable y ahora leo en el blog de jeff masters que el RECON que está investigando el sistema ha encontrado....

991 Hp y 65KT

De cualquier forma esperemos la oficialidad.

Saludos 

Oficialmente es Huracán

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Pero que enorme salto pego Rina en un abrir y cerrar de ojos...le aumentan su pico de intensidad hasta 105kts......que imagen de Rina, me la guardo 

000
WTNT63 KNHC 241804
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS STRENGTHENED.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241814
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

Saludos