000
ACCA62 TJSJ 072104 RRA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN
JUAN PR 325 PM EST JUEVES 7 DE ENERO DE 2016
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:
UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION EXTRATROPICAL CENTRALIZADA COMO A 425
MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA ESTA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA
DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA GALERNA Y VIENTOS MAXIMOS DE 60 A 65 MPH. SE
ANTICIPA QUE LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES ESTEN CONDUCENTES PARA LA
FORMACION DE UN CICLON SUBTROPICAL O TROPICAL HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA
A MEDIDA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVA AL ESTE NORESTE HACIA EL
OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL. SIN EMBRAGO...LAS CONDICIONES PODRIAN
TORNARSE CONDUCENTES PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA ADQUIERA CARACTERISTICAS
SUBTROPICALES MIENTRAS SE MUEVA AL ESTE SURESTE HACIA EL ESTE
SUBTROPICAL DEL OCEANO ATLANTICO PARA MEDIADOS DE LA PROXIMA SEMANA.
LA PROXIMA PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA SERA EMITIDA A
LAS 3 PM EST DEL VIERNES. PARA INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE ESTE
SISTEMA...REFERIRSE A EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTO OLEAJE EMITIDO POR EL
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...10 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO.
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
1. An extratropical low pressure system located over the central
Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles east of Bermuda is producing a large
area of gale-force winds and maximum winds of hurricane force.
Shower activity is currently limited near the center, but this low
could gradually acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next few days while it moves southeastward and then
eastward into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected
to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central
and eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 2 PM EST Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Brennan
CCA62 TJSJ 111916 RRA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES EN MIAMI FLORIDA
TRADUCCION POR LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN
JUAN PR
135 PM AST LUNES 11 DE ENERO DE 2016
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO:
UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL LOCALIZADO SOBRE EL ATLANTICO
CENTRAL...COMO A 900 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES ESTA
PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA DE VIENTOS CON FUERZA GALERNA Y VIENTOS
MAXIMOS CERCA DE LOS 60 MPH. EN ESTOS MOMENTOS LA ACTIVIDAD DE
AGUACEROS ESTA LIMITADA AL CENTRO DEL SISTEMA...PERO ESTA BAJA
PRESION PODRIA GRADUALMENTE ADQUIRIR CARACTERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES O
TROPICALES DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE CONTINUE
MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL SURESTE Y LUEGO HACIA EL ESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL
ATLANTICO SUBTROPICAL.
INDEPENDIENTEMENTE DE LA FORMACION CICLONICA SUBTROPICAL O
TROPICAL...SE ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA PRODUZCA CONDICIONES MARITIMAS
PELIGROSAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL ATLANTICO ESTE Y CENTRAL POR LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION ADICIONAL SOBRE ESTE
SISTEMA...REFERIRSE A EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTO OLEAJE EMITIDO POR EL
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. LA PROXIMA PERSPECTIVA ESPECIAL
SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 2 PM EST DEL MARTES.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...40 POR CIENTO.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...40 POR CIENTO.
&&
EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTO OLEAJE EMITIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEROLOGIA SE PUEDE ENCONTRAR BAJO TITULO NFDHSFAT1 EN AWIPS...BAJO
TITULO FZNT01 KWBC EN WMO...Y EN LA PAGINA WEB
HTTP://WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.SHTML
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
January subtropical storm possible in the Atlantic late this week
In the Atlantic, a powerful nontropical low is stirring up the waters east of Bermuda with a large area of strong winds, some as high as 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane-force!) Models continue to move this system toward the southeast and then east this week, which could put it in a more favorable environment for subtropical development. Ocean temperatures are at near-record warm levels for this time of year in the waters east of Bermuda (about 3 - 4°F above average), which is just high enough so that a pre-existing storm like this one, which has been cut off from the jet stream and lingers over these marginally warm waters for a few days, has the potential to become a subtropical storm. On Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave 2-day and 5-day odds of this system developing into a subtropical storm of 20% and 40%, respectively. Regardless of development, the storm may bring heavy rains and strong winds in excess of 50 mph to the Azores Islands on Friday.
A January named storm in the Atlantic--how rare?
Only one January tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851--an unnamed 1938 hurricane that became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6. There has also been one subtropical storm to form in January: Subtropical Storm One of January 18 – 23, 1978. Two other named storms that formed in late December managed to last into January, though--Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 30, 2005 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands, and Hurricane Alice, which formed on December 30, 1954, and tracked west-southwest into the Caribbean, where it dissipated on January 7, 1955.
000:yasiviene:
WTCA41 TJSJ 132047
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL ALEX ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012016
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE ENERO DE 2016
...TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL SE FORMA FUERA DE TEMPORADA SOBRE EL EXTREMO
ESTE DEL ATLANTICO...
RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC
------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.1 NORTE 30.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 785 MI...1260 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORESTE O 55 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARES...29.24 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
LOS INTERESES EN LAS AZORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ALEX.
DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------
IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL SISTE DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE
EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO SE HA DESARROLLADO EN TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL.
A LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL
ALEX ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 30.8
OESTE. LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD
DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE ALEX SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON
EXTRATROPICAL ANTES DE ALCANZAR LAS ISLAS AZORES EL VIERNES.
LOS VIENTOS DE 40 MPH SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM DEL
CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARES...29.24
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO
---------------------------------
VIENTO: VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA DEBEN COMENZAR A AFECTAR
PARTES DE LAS AZORES TARDE EL JUEVES O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES.
LLUVIA: SE ESPERA QUE ALEX PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS AZORES HASTA EL VIERNES...CON CANTIDADES
MAXIMAS POSIBLES AISLADAS DE 7 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN
PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
Según el NHC 60kt 984hPa... :cold:Pues seguramente que lo sea ya, compañero. Tal como comentaba Michu muy simétrico en todos los cuadrantes, buen flujo de salida y que encima esta mañana Mr. STEWART está de guardia en la Central del NHC. Además está la nueva actualización de ADT :ejemejem:
A las puertas de alcanzar la categoría 1... Si lo consigue puede hacer historia.
000::)
WTNT41 KNHC 140849
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016
Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Alex has
continued to improve with a 15-nmi clear eye now embedded within a
solid cloud shield of tops colder than -50C, with a ring of cloud
tops near -60C surrounding the eye in the northern semicircle. The
intensity of Alex is difficult to ascertain due to its subtropical
characteristics, and satellite intensity estimates range from
ST3.5/55 kt from TAFB to a tropical T4.5/77 kt from SAB. NHC AODT
intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt using a
tropical pattern and various eye scenes. Since the overall cloud
pattern of Alex has improved markedly since the earlier 50-kt
ASCAT-B scatterometer wind data, and a clear and distinct eye
feature is now evident, the intensity is being raised to 60 kt.
Alex continues to gradually turn toward the left and the initial
motion is now 020/16 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward
during the next 12 hours or so as it is steered by deep southerly
flow between a large extratropical low centered over the northwest
Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over northwestern Africa. A general
northward motion is expected to continue through at least 36 hours,
which should bring the center of Alex through the central Azores in
about 30 hours or 1200 UTC 15 January. By 48 hours, Alex should
start to turn more toward the northwest and west as it moves closer
to the center of a larger extratropical low forecast to be south of
Greenland on days 3 and 4. The new forecast track is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and
lies close to the consensus model TVCA.
Global and regional models, plus geostationary and microwave
satellite data, indicate that Alex remains a vertically stacked
low pressure system up to the 200 mb level, suggesting that the
cyclone is still primarily a subtropical storm. However, water vapor
imagery during the past few hours has been hinting that some weak
upper-level outflow might be trying to develop. GFS and NAM model
forecast soundings indicate that the current inner-core region of
Alex with Lifted Indices (LI) of -2 and CAPE values of 400-500 are
only expected to decrease to LI of -1 and CAPE near 300 as the
cyclone nears the Azores islands in 24-30 hours. In addition, the
inner-core region is forecast to remain saturated up to the 200 mb
level, along with precipitable water values around 1.60 inches. This
would suggest that Alex could remain as a subtropical cyclone by
the time it reaches the Azores, and some slight strengthening is
even possible as 300 mb temperatures are forecast to decrease from
-40C to around -42C in the inner core. The official intensity has
been nudged upward and is similar to a blend of the ECMWF and HRWF
model intensity forecasts.
Gale- and storm-force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are
likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning tonight and
continuing into early Friday. Recent communications with the Azores
Meteorological Office indicate that wind gusts to a least 70 kt (130
km/h) are forecast to occur across portions of the central and
eastern Azores islands. However, stronger gusts will be possible at
higher elevations, especially over mountain tops and ridges.
Interests in the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Alex
and official forecasts issued by the Azores weather office.
Forecaster Stewart
Oye yo visto esto no se si esto ya pasa de TS a TT eh, convección entorno a su centro en todos los cuadrantes bastante simétrica y encima un ojo incipiente o ya no tan incipiente :rcain: :rcain: :rcain: :rcain:
Que pasada madre mia...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
[emojifacepal01] [emojifacepal01] [emojifacepal01]
¡¡Sí Señor, así se hace. Por la puerta grande!!
Ya que no lo hacen en el NHC, lo actualizan en la Navy. Desde luego...........
75kts-981mb
Alex haciendo historia. Solo Alice en 1955 consiguió ser Huracán en Enero en el Atlántico Norte.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 141434
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016
Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to
have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The
resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these
changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
of the Azores islands.
The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional
intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,
the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
its identity after 48 hours.
The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is
being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.
Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
1955.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Lo que comentábamos. ALEX ya es "oficialmente" Huracán y ojo que el nuevo pico de intensidad previsto pasa ligeramente de los 80 kts, por lo que no sería desacabellado que alcanzase la Categoría 2. :o :o
La de vueltas que le habrán tenido que dar para llegar a "esto":Citar000
WTNT41 KNHC 141434
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016
Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to
have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The
resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these
changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
of the Azores islands.
The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional
intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,
the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
its identity after 48 hours.
The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is
being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.
Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
1955.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Sorprendentemente, ALEX ha completado la transformación en un huracán.
presenta un ojo perfectamente visible, embebido en una masa bastante simétrica
convección profunda.
con un flujo divergente sobre el
centro - indicativo de una transición tropical. Es muy raro
tener un huracán sobre aguas que están cerca de 20 ° C, pero la
temperatura de la parte superior de la troposfera se estiman en alrededor de -60 grados
C, que es significativamente más frío que la media tropical. La
inestabilidad resultante es probablemente el principal factor contribuyente a la
transición tropical y la intensificación de Alex.
Alex es el primer huracán que se forma en el mes de enero desde
1938, y el primer huracán que ocurre en este mes desde ALICE de 1955.
uyuyuyNo da muestras de debilitamiento, más bien al contrario, parece que su anillo se refuerza a cada instante que pasa. Para mí que ya tiene la Categoría 2, pero vamos, que si antes tardaron la de Dios para subirle de categoría......
4.7 / 970.7mb/ 82.2kt
Alex, no obstante, está perdiendo un poco de simetría. La cizalladura empieza a aumentar a su alrededor y el aire seco que tiene al oeste empieza a atacar su circulación desde el cuadrante suroeste donde la convección está perdiendo entidad y los topes se están calentando.
Iba a decir que Alex está cerca de ser historia tropical........ pero es que ya lo es. :aplause: