000WTCA41 TJSJ 132047TCPSP1BOLETIN TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL ALEX ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012016TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR 500 PM AST MIERCOLES 13 DE ENERO DE 2016...TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL SE FORMA FUERA DE TEMPORADA SOBRE EL EXTREMOESTE DEL ATLANTICO...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC------------------------------------------------------LOCALIZACION...27.1 NORTE 30.8 OESTE CERCA DE 785 MI...1260 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORESTE O 55 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MILIBARES...29.24 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS-------------------- LOS INTERESES EN LAS AZORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE ALEX.DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS---------------------------------- IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL SISTE DE BAJA PRESION SOBRE EL ESTE DEL ATLANTICO SE HA DESARROLLADO EN TORMENTA SUBTROPICAL. A LAS 5:00 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA SUBTROPICALALEX ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 30.8OESTE. LA TORMENTA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/H...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDADDE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...CONRAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTELAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE ALEX SE CONVIERTA EN CICLONEXTRATROPICAL ANTES DE ALCANZAR LAS ISLAS AZORES EL VIERNES.LOS VIENTOS DE 40 MPH SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM DELCENTRO.LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARES...29.24PULGADAS. PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO--------------------------------- VIENTO: VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA DEBEN COMENZAR A AFECTARPARTES DE LAS AZORES TARDE EL JUEVES O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. LLUVIA: SE ESPERA QUE ALEX PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIADE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS AZORES HASTA EL VIERNES...CON CANTIDADESMAXIMAS POSIBLES AISLADAS DE 7 PULGADAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERANPRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS PELIGROSAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO.PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------------- PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 PM AST.$$ PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
Según el NHC 60kt 984hPa... A las puertas de alcanzar la categoría 1... Si lo consigue puede hacer historia.
000WTNT41 KNHC 140849TCDAT1SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Alex hascontinued to improve with a 15-nmi clear eye now embedded within asolid cloud shield of tops colder than -50C, with a ring of cloudtops near -60C surrounding the eye in the northern semicircle. Theintensity of Alex is difficult to ascertain due to its subtropicalcharacteristics, and satellite intensity estimates range fromST3.5/55 kt from TAFB to a tropical T4.5/77 kt from SAB. NHC AODTintensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt using atropical pattern and various eye scenes. Since the overall cloudpattern of Alex has improved markedly since the earlier 50-ktASCAT-B scatterometer wind data, and a clear and distinct eyefeature is now evident, the intensity is being raised to 60 kt.Alex continues to gradually turn toward the left and the initialmotion is now 020/16 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northwardduring the next 12 hours or so as it is steered by deep southerlyflow between a large extratropical low centered over the northwestAtlantic and a subtropical ridge over northwestern Africa. A generalnorthward motion is expected to continue through at least 36 hours,which should bring the center of Alex through the central Azores inabout 30 hours or 1200 UTC 15 January. By 48 hours, Alex shouldstart to turn more toward the northwest and west as it moves closerto the center of a larger extratropical low forecast to be south ofGreenland on days 3 and 4. The new forecast track is essentiallyjust an update of the previous advisory track through 36 hours, andlies close to the consensus model TVCA.Global and regional models, plus geostationary and microwavesatellite data, indicate that Alex remains a vertically stackedlow pressure system up to the 200 mb level, suggesting that thecyclone is still primarily a subtropical storm. However, water vaporimagery during the past few hours has been hinting that some weakupper-level outflow might be trying to develop. GFS and NAM modelforecast soundings indicate that the current inner-core region ofAlex with Lifted Indices (LI) of -2 and CAPE values of 400-500 areonly expected to decrease to LI of -1 and CAPE near 300 as thecyclone nears the Azores islands in 24-30 hours. In addition, theinner-core region is forecast to remain saturated up to the 200 mblevel, along with precipitable water values around 1.60 inches. Thiswould suggest that Alex could remain as a subtropical cyclone bythe time it reaches the Azores, and some slight strengthening iseven possible as 300 mb temperatures are forecast to decrease from-40C to around -42C in the inner core. The official intensity hasbeen nudged upward and is similar to a blend of the ECMWF and HRWFmodel intensity forecasts.Gale- and storm-force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, arelikely to affect portions of the Azores beginning tonight andcontinuing into early Friday. Recent communications with the AzoresMeteorological Office indicate that wind gusts to a least 70 kt (130km/h) are forecast to occur across portions of the central andeastern Azores islands. However, stronger gusts will be possible athigher elevations, especially over mountain tops and ridges.Interests in the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Alexand official forecasts issued by the Azores weather office.Forecaster Stewart
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