Lanzada alerta de formación tropical por parte del JTWC, y denominación de Depresión Tropical GORIO por parte de PAGASA

El LLCC lo situo por coordenadas del Navy y la última imagen disponible del Quikscat, pero no lo tengo muy claro...

[25kt]

El JTWC eleva el rango a Depresión 05W, con vientos de 25kt. La proximidad con Luzón limita su desarrollo ahora, y según los americanos, un aumento de la cizalladura en torno a Hong-Kong, lo que impedirá que gane mucha más fuerza

GORIO, como Depresión Tropical (para todos los organismos que la siguen), ya se encuentra en el Mar de la China, rumbo a Hong-Kong. La cizalladura ya ha comenzado a subir, tal y como pronosticaba el JTWC. No obstante, mantienen las posibilidades de que alcance fuerza de Tormenta Tropical. Tengo mis dudas, basicamente porque el pasar tan cerca de Luzón, ha desorganizado bastante la convección

 

[GORIO]

Buenas de nuevo. 

Trabajo que dan los trópicos y la temporada interesante se resiste aún...


- GORIO (SOUDELOR para otros...) pierde fuelle a medida que se acerca a la China continental y la isla de Hainan (8 millones de habitantes)... JTWC comenta en su parte nº7 lo siguiente. Y es que la cizalladura hace su trabajo por el 1º cuadrante y deja expuesto su LLCC, a pesar del aumento de convección reciente, hacia el SW.

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 007   
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, BUT HAS RECENTLY SEEN AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION BUILDING BACK
OVER THE LLCC.


-Modelos

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUDELOR
(2009-07-11 10:04:37 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
110600Z 20.1N 114.2E 35KT
(+024H) 20.3N 108.4E 35KT
(+048H) 21.1N 104.0E 30KT
(+072H) 21.8N 100.3E 15KT
JMA:
110600Z 20.2N 114.0E 35KT
(+024H) 20.7N 108.6E 35KT
(+048H) 21.7N 104.8E ---KT
KMA:
110600Z 20.2N 114.0E 35KT
(+024H) 20.7N 109.0E 35KT
(+048H) 21.5N 105.0E ---KT
NMC:
110600Z 20.2N 114.0E 35KT
(+024H) 20.8N 109.0E 35KT
(+048H) 21.4N 103.6E 23KT
CWB:
110600Z 20.2N 114.0E 35KT
(+024H) 21.0N 108.6E ---KT

[- JTWC parte nº9...]

Tocado de muerte por la cizalladura y los vientos del Este, con actualmente 35 Knt...

- JTWC parte nº9...

...LLCC expuesto, algo de convección cerca de su centro, empujada rápidamente por la cizalladura, hacia el SO...

RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE
CENTER AND QUICKLY BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON AN 35 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FROM AN 1104Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF 30-35 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
IT NEARS THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TO THE NORTH AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NEAR HAINAN ISLAND AND
CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

Buenos Días.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUDELOR
(2009-07-12 06:59:28 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
120300Z 20.3N 109.6E 35KT
(+024H) 20.9N 105.1E 25KT
(+048H) 21.7N 100.8E 15KT
JTWC:
120000Z 20.4N 110.4E 30KT
(+024H) 20.8N 106.2E 25KT
JMA:
120600Z 20.8N 108.5E 35KT
(+024H) 21.2N 104.4E ---KT
KMA:
120600Z 20.8N 108.5E 33KT
(+024H) 21.2N 104.8E ---KT
NMC:
120600Z 20.5N 108.7E 35KT
(+024H) 21.9N 104.7E 25KT
CWB:
120000Z 20.5N 110.3E 35KT

[- JTWC final warning]

- JTWC final warning

No comment... LLCC expuesto y sin simetría, pasando por el SurEste de Hanoi

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 011   
   
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 108.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 108.6E
 
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 108.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155
NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TD 05W HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED FROM CONVECTION AND
HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS LOST ITS SYMMETRIC SHAPE, AND HAS BECOME
DEFORMED. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

Mmmm, al final fue más al W de lo previsto, y adquirió nombre, cosa que dudaba que hiciera. Eso si, sin pasar de 35kt