[BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_ep962009.investEP, 96, 2009090406, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1134W, 20, 1010, DB]

Nuevo Invest en el Pacífico Este...  I96E. Futura LINDA...

Sin duda el año de esta cuenca...

-ATCF:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962009.invest
EP, 96, 2009090406,   , BEST,   0, 119N, 1134W,  20, 1010, DB

- SHIPS:

                   *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                   *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                   *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                   *  INVEST      EP962009  09/04/09  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    36    47    58    62    63    60    61    60
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    36    47    58    62    63    60    61    60
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    23    27    32    40    48    55    56    53    49

SHEAR (KT)        20    13    11     9     6     4     3     5     4    10    18    15    17
SHEAR DIR         73    72    62    72    88    75    93    74   203   249   248   272   265
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.5  28.2  28.0  28.0  28.1
LAT (DEG N)     11.9  12.1  12.3  12.5  12.7  12.9  13.3  13.7  13.9  14.1  14.2  14.3  14.5
LONG(DEG W)    113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.0 118.7 120.3 122.0 123.5 124.9 126.3 127.6 128.4
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     9     9     9     8     9     8     7     7     7     5     4
HEAT CONTENT      46    45    42    47    50    35    42    41    39    29    27    15    32

confio en que llegue a TD, y por que no a categoria 1.








un saludo avergonzado

[EP, 96, 2009090518, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1193W, 25, 1009, DB,]

Desarrollo lento del sistema... y para SHIPS TD...

- ATCF:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962009.invest
EP, 96, 2009090518,   , BEST,   0, 143N, 1193W,  25, 1009, DB,

- SHIPS:

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      EP962009  09/05/09  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    37    43    47    49    53    55    57    57    50
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    37    43    47    49    53    55    57    57    50
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    29    31    33    36    37    36    34    32    30    29    28
SHEAR (KT)        11    10     6     5     4     9    15    21    15    18    16    22    18
SHEAR DIR         55    39    29    32   332   275   257   267   288   273   271   243   243
SST (C)         28.3  28.3  28.2  28.1  27.8  27.2  26.9  27.0  26.7  26.4  26.2  26.1  25.7


- Por cierto, ex-KEVIN en las cercanias...

nivel 2 de desarrollo, es decir, 30-50% de chance.
no me deja copiar y pegar el portatil...

a ver si se soluciona el problema este, me gustaria copiar el texto entero, y no solo una frase...

un saludo avergonzado

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.









un saludo avergonzado

15ª Depresión Tropical de la temporada. No hay que esperar mucho de ella

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR

SST solo marginalmente cálido, con débil a moderada cizalladura

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W    30 KT
12HR VT     07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W    35 KT
24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W    40 KT
36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W    45 KT
48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W    45 KT
72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W    45 KT
96HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W    25 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/070832.shtml

[1000mb-45kt]

13ª Tormenta de la temporada. Ha pegado un buen repunte, sube a 1000mb-45kt, en base a convección intensa en una pequeña parte del LLCC

[50kt]

El NHC se muestra generoso. La intensidad la situan en 50kt

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS

Incluso dicen que puede que la intensidad sea generosa, debido a la aparición del EYE-LIKE FEATURE en el visible. Una imitación a ojo, se observa en la imagen del post anterior

Muy claro tienen que tener que alcance fuerza de huracán, porque se enfrenta a una buena masa de aire seco y estable



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W    50 KT
12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W    60 KT
24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W    65 KT
36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W    65 KT
48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W    65 KT
72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W    50 KT
96HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/072034.shtml

el señor avila ha hablado.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W    50 KT
12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W    55 KT
24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W    55 KT
36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KT
48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT
72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


bajan las previsiones...






veis a esta cuenca llegando al alfabeto griego?....

un saludo avergonzado

[THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TOA SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITYTO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEARINCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W    50 KT
12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W    55 KT
24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W    50 KT
36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W    45 KT
48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W    40 KT
72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    25 KT
96HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

se la cargan en un plis-plas.

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER
THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO
A SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE
SHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.

pues eso...que los 50kT son solo en una parte del sistema, y tiene 12 horas para desarrollarse antes de que la cizalladura aumente y/o la tª del agua disminuya.

un saludo avergonzado

[12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W 60 KT]

cuidadin din din!!!!


Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA
REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE
EXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.

DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS
BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THEREAFTER...
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS
TURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS
SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

IT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO
BE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0900Z 15.8N 128.4W    55 KT
12HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W    60 KT
24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W    60 KT
36HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W    55 KT
48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W    45 KT
72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.2N 132.1W    30 KT
96HR VT     13/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


estas próximas 24 horas son cruciales para su desarrollo.


un saludo avergonzado

Y tan cruciales. Para mí, que a pesar de la masa de aire seco que tiene delante al WSW, se ha fortalecido algo en las últimas horas. Veremos esta tarde si se confirma este repunte.
Saludos.