[FAIR]

Próximo sistema en la lista de espera.

DW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:31pm WST on Sunday the 23rd of January 2011
Valid until midnight WST Wednesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil

Potential Cyclones:
At 8am WST a tropical low was located just off the Kimberley coast near latitude
14.3S longitude 128.8E, about 75 kilometres west of Port Keats, moving north at
6 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move in a generally westwards
direction and be in the Western region [west of 125E] just off the Kimberley
coast on Tuesday. During the week the low is expected to move towards the
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a tropical
cyclone late on Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High





Según JTWC, FAIR

[Bianca]

Va gestándose poco a poco....pero de momento sin cambios, eso sí, mejora mucho su aspecto.


Toca Bianca

[Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 12U]

Pico de hasta 60 KT en 72 HRS para bureau actualmente tiene 20 KT 

Name: Tropical Low 
Identifier: 12U


Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]


Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1200: 15.2S 125.7E:     060 [110]:  020  [035]: 1000
+24: 25/0000: 16.2S 124.1E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1000
+36: 25/1200: 17.3S 122.1E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  996
+48: 26/0000: 18.4S 119.7E:     150 [280]:  040  [075]:  994
+60: 26/1200: 19.4S 117.1E:     180 [335]:  050  [095]:  988
+72: 27/0000: 20.3S 114.6E:     210 [390]:  060  [110]:  980

[Vertical shear has continued to ease with the CIMSS analysis now showing lessthan 20 knots across the LLCC. Shear is likely to further reduce and byWednesday only moderate shear is expected.]

El nuevo pronóstico es más fiero aún....

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 15.1S 124.9E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  995
+24: 25/0600: 16.2S 123.1E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  992
+36: 25/1800: 17.3S 120.8E:     120 [225]:  040  [075]:  990
+48: 26/0600: 18.5S 118.1E:     155 [285]:  050  [095]:  984
+60: 26/1800: 19.3S 115.7E:     200 [375]:  060  [110]:  975
+72: 27/0600: 20.3S 113.1E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  968

¿y por qué?

Vertical shear has continued to ease with the CIMSS analysis now showing less
than 20 knots across the LLCC. Shear is likely to further reduce and by
Wednesday only moderate shear is expected.

Cizalladura en descenso

The dry air that has been evident
over the last couple of days no longer appears to be having an influence and
with significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast the system is expected
to develop at close to the climatological rate during Wednesday and into
Thursday.

Y descenso de aire seco, junto con un aumento de los niveles de OHC.

de momento 30 kts, está al caer.

[GOOD]

Cuando se libre de su interacción con tierra pegará el ''catapúm''.


TCFA lanzada desde el JTWC, le otorgan GOOD

Circulación claramente conseguida

Pero TorreZno, esa imagen es del día 22

Este es el aspecto que presenta ahora.


Está apuntito.

[35kts-995mB]

La marina actualiza: 10.S

35kts-995mB

No hay una imagen limpia en el micro-ondas.
De momento BOM no actualiza.

[35 KT 994 HPA]

35 KT  994 HPA





A un paso....

[Nace Bianca]

Nace Bianca

40 KT 990 HPA

WTAU05 APRF 251904
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:18S121E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Perth
AT 1904UTC 25 JANUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Bianca was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal eight south (17.8S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal eight east (120.8E)
Recent movement : southwest at 12 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

Yo lo que veo es un anillo de precipitación en el radar.


Luego, lo que quiera que sea eso que se ve en la imagen del microondas, ahi ya no me meto.


Vamos, que este sistemita tiene una pinta de futuro Major en ciernes, por lo menos para mí......

[Bianca - Anthony - Wilma]

Lo tiene todo a favor  un bajo cizallamiento tan solo de 10 -15 Kt y lo más importante un mar a +30º.

Este bicho esta por explotar.....



Y su centro bien visible.

Bianca - Anthony - Wilma