[SATELLITEINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT]

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY

SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR
AROUND IT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY

Un par de dias sobre aguas tropicales, con cizalladura no superior a 15kt, aunque con mucho aire seco alrededor del sistema

SHIPS le concede el estatus de Tormenta Tropical antes de extratropicalizarse

Neuva Tormenta Tropical sobre el Atlantico.

Si no fuese Huracan, seria record?.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 141753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT WILL APPROACH BERMUDA TONIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

El aspecto mejoró comparado con el de hace algunas horas.

[THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT]

 

GERT Gana Fuerza

THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT

[GERT Gana Fuerza]

GERT Gana Fuerza
THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT

Y no solamente gana fuerza, sino que literalmente se está "merendando" al 92L Pasará justo al Este de Bermuda esta tarde-noche.
Saludos.

[GERT Gana Fuerza]

GERT Gana Fuerza
THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT

Y no solamente gana fuerza, sino que literalmente se está "merendando" al 92L Pasará justo al Este de Bermuda esta tarde-noche.
Saludos.

Ahora es una banda en espiral de GERT 

GERT pasa a un lado de bermudas

[SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...32.0N 63.2WABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 63.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

Según la discursión del NHC, seguirá aumentando su fuerza en estas próximas 24 horas, pero no llegará a la Cat.1 debido entre otras causas, a lo pequeño que es el ciclón, que lo deja casi indefenso contra las intrusiones de aire seco, además de moverse por aguas de 26º C con tendencia a aguas más frías y a cizalladura creciente del SW.

GERT se situa como Tormenta Tropical mínima, a la vez que sigue diluyendose sobre las aguas cada vez mas frias del Atlántico



El NHC lo dice claramente

A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GERT IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM LATER THIS MORNING
AND MOVES INTO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GERT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
WATERS NEAR 20C

GERT es historia tropical