[HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30PERCENT]

Parece ser que la vaguada en la que terminaron de desaparecer los remanentes de Helene, vuelve a ser noticia en el Golfo de Mexico al internarse en el mar y dispararse la convección en la zona.



NHC:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.


El problema que tiene es que se está moviendo muy cerca de la costa, por lo que va a tener algo dificil el desarrollo. Por lo demás, las condiciones son favorables para su evolución, la convección es intensa y la cizalladura es muy débil en ese área.


Un saludo.

[AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TOINVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.]

Continua con un 30 % de posibilidades de desarrollo, aunque hay un vuelo de reconocimiento en camino.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

Adjunto la prediccion de algunos modelos.

[SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILLPOSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO]

Permanece sin cambios.

La posibilidades de desarrollo de este sistema pasan porque el sistema continue en el mar.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

Realmente no tiene muchos chances de desarrollo, pero bueno ahora que el frente al que estaba asociada se va diluyendo quizás pueda formarse algo.

Saludos 

[SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT ISSTILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY ORWEDNESDAY]

Lo tiene muy complicado, el sistema tocara tierra entre hoy y mañana.



2. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

Salvo sorpresa este sistema no se desarrollara,solo tiene un 10% de posibilidades de desarrollo.

El Nhc ya no sigue este sistema.