[92SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-98S-860E]

Tal y como he venía comentando jornadas atrás en el seguimiento tropical https://foro.tiempo.com/seguimiento-general-modelos-previsiones-etc-t82340.3732.html , ya tenemos bajo vigilancia por parte de la marina de EE.UU al enorme disturbio tropical situado en pleno océamo índico, y que según vienen actualizando los modelos globales, y dadas que las condiciones ambientales irán mejorando según se vaya desplazando rumbo suroeste, muy posible llegue a convertirse en todo un potente ciclón.

92SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-98S-860E

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 91.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091216Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
SOME STRONGER FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 090550Z INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF NOW LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Visualised Products Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate



http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm

[92SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-116S-845E]

Lanzada ATCF.

92SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-116S-845E



Bajada significativa de la cizalladura prevista para las próximas horas, SST superior a los 29ºC, niveles de OHC positivos en su trayectoria prevista, pero algo de aire seco a la vista.

Se consolida rápidamente y asciende a Tormenta Tropical "GINO", previsión de pico máximo de intensidad de 90 KT por parte de la marina.

Y finalmente Gino se convierte en un potente Huracán.

[15SGINO.75kts-967mb-166S-796E]

15SGINO.75kts-967mb-166S-796E