[SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOHAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS AWELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBEDWEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGEWITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTORICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARDAT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLAND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURINGTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLYINVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM.]

Las bandas en espiral convectivas lo delatan... 



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...
SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM.

Tendrá que luchar por la más que inminente entrada de aire seco que se sitúa al norte de Puerto Rico, pero mucho antes se verá afectado ligeramente por la orografía de la isla, pero de lo que no se va a salvar va a ser del aumento significativo nuevamente de la cizalladura, que en este caso será de componente oeste-suroeste... y más o menos a la altura de la Florida (sobre el mar), el ambiente pasará a ser mucho más favorable para un fortalecimiento significativo.

[Depresión Tropical]

Tenemos Depresión Tropical  

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

07LSEVEN.30kts-1010mb-162N-659W

000
WTNT32 KNHC 042057
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 042057
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.

THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.  ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE
TO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER
THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  AND
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE
WIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER IT
LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE
SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THE
NORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 16.5N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 17.4N  67.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 18.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 19.7N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 20.9N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 23.1N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 25.3N  68.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.]

Sin duda alguna tiene mucho más pinta de Tormenta Tropical que de una simple Depresión... y mucho !ojo! con la cosa tempestuosa esa que tiene a su noreste.



ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.

GABRIELLE has born desde hace unas horas

De hecho, ya hay parte intermedio 

...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 66.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 135 MI...216 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Mmmm

El este de Puerto Rico e Islas Vírgenes han desaparecido. Habemus burstazo

[10%]

Mmmm

El este de Puerto Rico e Islas Vírgenes han desaparecido. Habemus burstazo

Sí, literalmente se está jamando al pobre sistema que tiene a su NE y que el NHC había puesto en seguimiento con un 10% de posibilidades.

El otro coso es el grano en el culo que chupa recursos. Normalmente el fuerte gana. Está claro que lo acabará por absorver GABRIELLE.

Aunque no seria la primera vez que la vaguada que acompaña a los granos, suelen dar cizalladura extra a las tormentas cercanas

Nuevo parte

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

Hablan de que salida buena, mucha convección, micro y doppler no ven mucho por abajo, pero el radar si... Mandan a un recon a la tormenta, a ver que ve.
También comenta que a excepción del ECMWF, los demás modelos le dan vidilla mas alla de dos días, con la diferencia que GABRIELLE irá por donde alla mala cizalladura, con lo que dicen no descartar lo que ve el europeo