[MEDIUM]

Formación de otro sistema en la cuenca australiana, Bureau pronostica que llegue a la Categoria 2 en su escala antes de tocar tierra.

JTWC, por su parte, tan solo establece en MEDIUM las posibilidades de desarrollo.

Desarrollo de cara a corto plazo asegurado.

[17PGILLIAN.35kts-996mb-113S-1400E]

Pues sorpresa y "subidón" de categoría al canto. Carpentaria está que hierve en estas fechas:
17PGILLIAN.35kts-996mb-113S-1400E

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 140.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (GILLIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 080842Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC HAS BECOME TIGHTER WRAPPED WHILE CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND ADRM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH
IS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17P IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AFTER TAU 48, SOME
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WHICH WILL
CAUSE A SLIGHT DEFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
MODERATE TO STRONG VWS IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RELAX AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SOUTH WHICH, COUPLED WITH THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD
WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS THAT RANGE FROM TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH, TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

Así es Sudoku, pero ojo que Bureau intensifica algo más al sistema en el Golfo de Carpentaria, las aguas están bastante calientes en esta zona.



De momento sin cambios en su intensidad.

Gillian con su centro sobre tierra... ya puede ponerse las pilas.

Con su centro sobre tierra y sin visos de desarrollo, JTWC emite el ultimo parte sobre el sistema.



Bureau deja abierta la puerta a una nueva intensificación de cara a 2-3 días vista. Ya lo iremos viendo.

 



Puede que el Ave Fenix, digo Gillian, no haya dicho su ultima palabra, estaremos atentos porque puede dar que hablar d ecara a medio plazo.

GFS se suma al carro.



Y ojo que el Europeo intensifica bastante al sistema de aquí a una semana vista. Gillian va a dar más vueltas que una persiana

Los modelos siguen apostando en este desarrollo. Bonito aspecto en Carpentaria, aunque chocará otra vez con las costas australianas.



Ya digo que va a dar más vueltas que un hula-hoop.

[17PGILLIAN.30kts-1000mb-132S-1394E.]

Estooo..........el Ave Fénix, digo GILLIAN, cabalga de nuevo y ya va camino de tener fuerza de Tormenta Tropical S.S. De momento, 17PGILLIAN.30kts-1000mb-132S-1394E. El JTWC lanza de nuevo la alerta por formación tropical.

WTPS21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 140.1E TO 11.2S 136.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 140100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 138.0E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 141.2E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AS ITS CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE DEEPENED. A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPIRAL INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK EQUATORWARD CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LOWER
VWS. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST 35
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150130Z.  //
NNNN

Bureau recataloga a Gillian como Ciclón Tropical Categoría 1.

Imagen cortesía de la NASA.



El ave fenix....

Le queda un laaaargo camino por recorrer a nuestro Gillian.

Pendientes de un sistema al norte-noroeste de Australia. Mari Ramos está mostrando a lo largo de esta tarde imágenes de las últimas 24 horas. Hice una captura, aunque el sistema actualmente está más hacia la izquierda, fuera del área circular mostrado.