[60 percent.]

Otro bicho en ciernes



1. A broad low centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the
development of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[96EINVEST.25kts-1007mb-140N-1045W]

Esta sí que va rápida. Las últimas pasadas del SAT, tanto en Visible, IR como en microondas, deja palpable su rápida evolución y desarrollo. Bandas de tormentas envuelven su centro y no extrañaría que tengamos una Depresión tropical para esta noche, hora española. De momento: 96EINVEST.25kts-1007mb-140N-1045W
Posibles trayectorias según los modelos:

[97-E]

Lo dicho. A puntito de caramelo. Y ni siquiera la 97-E que está intentando pincharle por el SE, le va a hacer ni cosquillas.

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure area centered about 350 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are becoming better
organized.  Environmental conditions are very conducive for further
development and a tropical depression could form later today or
tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Pos ale.

[ADT]

Mmmmm...........tremendo el aspecto que tiene en estos momentos. Así no me extraña la lectura de ADT  CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.1mb/ 43.0kt
Por lo que DOUGLAS está al caer.

[...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...]

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
Y llegó la oficialidad. De todas formas, las agencias solo le dan un pico de intensidad de 50 kts. pero ya se sabe como son estas cosas.

[It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as thesea surface temperatures and convective instability start droppingsteadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear.]

DOUGLAS, con 40 nudos, cerca de su pico de intensidad.

It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the
sea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping
steadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear.

Douglas poco a poco debilitándose, aquí una imagen en su mejor momento, cortesía de la NASA.



Poca vida le queda ya.