[50 percent]

Ahi tenemos al enésimo sistema de la temporada en el Pacífico Este.



1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
centered several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is
producing a large but still disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Pasaré el fin de semana fuera, hasta el Lunes no volveré a conectarme, cuidadme el seguimientooo!

[ROJO]

Parece que este sistema no quiere ser menos que sus compis del Pacífico Oeste. Código ROJO. Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical.

1. Shower activity associated with the area of low pressure centered
about 550 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to increase today. Environmental
conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form from this
system on Saturday while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Avila

Se forma una nueva Depresión Tropical en el Pacífico Este, frente a las costas mejicanas. Y ya van.............
Primer parte de la subsodicha, cuando todavía en el NHC no han actualizado su floater:

Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
900 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL WEST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 113.5W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 113.5 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h).  A northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[11-E]

Poco recorrido le dan en las agencias a la 11-E. Si acaso Tormenta tropical mínima en su rápido camino hacia el NW, según se ve en el ATCF.