[92-P]

No ha terminado de disiparse todavía el ciclón tropical WINSTON, cuando aparece en escena un nuevo sistema, el 92-P al que los diagramas de fase no le dan mucha importancia, en principio. Lo que ocurre es que estamos en año de "Niño fuerte" y cualquier pequeño sistemita, la puede liar. En principio adquiere fuerza de Depresión Tropical S. S. pero con miras a rápido fortalecimiento, viendo las últimas imágenes del SAT.

Como comentábamos, rápidamente adquiere fuerza de Tormenta Tropical S.S. Veremos a ver, porque las agencias no contempla de que vaya más allá de los 55 a 60 kts.

REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 155.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING INTO A VERY
COMPACT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241940Z
AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MODERATELY WELL-DEFINED CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, SUPPORTING
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36 VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE
AS TC 14P INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS SHEAR
AND SST VALUES BECOME UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM.

[50kts-985mb]

¡¡ZAS..........50kts-985mb!!

Impresionante el aspecto que tiene en estos momentos en el Visible. Todavía no han actualizado las imágenes del microondas ni ADT, pero vamos, que esto está más cerca de la Categoría 1, que de una simple Tormenta Tropical, es seguro.