["Bajas Probabilidades de Desarrollo"]

Pues eso acaba de decretar el NHC la formación de la segunda Tormenta Tropical del año en la cuenca del Atlántico Norte y aun no arranca la temporada. Los modelos intuían algo pero de corta vida y poca entidad, tal es así que apenas ayer al área de bajas presiones sobre la Florida se le etiquetaba como de "Bajas Probabilidades de Desarrollo", Pero dejemos que sea el NHC el que explique.

Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the
past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning. 
The circulation has become better defined and the center has
reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the
coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from
Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing
tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha.  The system will be moving
inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is
expected.  Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken
rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday.

There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the
center has only recently formed.  The best estimate of the initial
motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally
northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located
over the western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far
southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of
the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1230Z 32.7N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  27/1800Z 33.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  28/0600Z 35.8N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
36H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

Creo que para esto no había que armar tanto rollo, a este ritmo el 2005 va a quedar como juego de niños y si el NHC le da por nombrar todos los giros que vea, pues arreglados estamos.

Saludos8)

PD: Al parecer el centro ya ha entrado en Tierra 

Ya el centro ha entrado en tierra.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Saludos