[* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.]

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with a non-tropical low pressure
system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.  Although
the circulation is still somewhat elongated, the center appears
better defined than it was yesterday. Continued slow development
is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Va a tener un desplazamiento errático, primero hacia Puerto Rico, para volver sobre sus pasos y dirigirse a Bermuda

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Luce mucho mas tropical hoy a pesar que el centro queda expuesto por la cizalladura.

Saludos

El NHC ve a EPSILON como huracán cerca de Bermuda en 72-96 Horas.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 55.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Que es mas o menos lo que ven los modelos, tanto GFS como ECMWF. La discusión plantea que en par de días la cizalladura bajará y eso permitirá a EPSILON ganar fuerza.

Saludos

EPSILON ya es huracán en su aproximación a Bermuda

[75kts-976mb]

75kts-976mb



Viendo este aspecto, y contando con 48h de intensificación, no descarto que pueda rozar los 100 nudos.....

[Ávila]

La verdad es que tiene muy buena pinta si. Se está intensificando a buen ritmo, si que podemos tener un Major en el Atlántico si no se frena pronto. El NHC comenta que la intensificación debería durar poco, pero de momento no da signos de debilitarse.


Saludos.

Así luce ahora.

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON IS STILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

95kt, bordeando la Categoría 3

[100kts-955mb]

Ya es Major 

100kts-955mb

En efecto EPSILON llega a la Categoría 3....

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHE

EPSILON esta topando sus posibilidades no obstante seguirá siendo un fuerte sistema los próximos días. Pasará mañana en la tarde al este de BERMUDA y se extratropicalizará en 4 - 5  días al sobre el atlántico norte.

Saludos

EPSILON vuelve a categoría 1....

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Saludos

EPSILON aun aguanta como huracán Cat. 1 y de hecho luce bastante bien.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 61.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

Saludos